Ligue 1 2024-2025: Auxerre vs Montpellier Prediction - 30 Mar 2025
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Auxerre
Home Team
75%
VS
Montpellier
Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5:
52%
Under 2.5:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 26 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 73 | 25 | 48 | 68 |
| 2 | Marseille | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 49 |
| 3 | Monaco | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 51 | 32 | 19 | 47 |
| 4 | Nice | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 47 |
| 5 | Lyon | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 45 |
| 6 | Lille | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 28 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 33 | 8 | 43 |
| 8 | Lens | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 39 |
| 9 | Brest | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 37 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 34 |
| 11 | Auxerre | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 32 |
| 12 | Rennes | 26 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 29 |
| 13 | Nantes | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 27 |
| 14 | Angers | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Reims | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | St Etienne | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 57 | -30 | 23 |
| 17 | Le Havre | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 21 |
| 18 | Montpellier | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 61 | -40 | 15 |
Recent Trends
Auxerre
- Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Reims (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 2)
Montpellier
- Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 5th Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Auxerre
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.32
# Clean Sheets:
2
Montpellier
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.90
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Auxerre and Montpellier is heavily tilted in favor of the home side, Auxerre, who have a 75% probability of winning. This high probability is indicative of their stronger position in the league, currently sitting at 11th, compared to Montpellier languishing in 18th place. With a 52% chance of the match seeing over 2.5 goals, fans can expect an open and attacking game.
Match Analysis
Auxerre have shown a mixed bag of results in their recent fixtures. After a narrow home defeat to Strasbourg (0-1), they bounced back with a solid away victory against Reims (2-0) and secured a hard-fought draw against a strong Nice side (1-1) away from home. This demonstrates their ability to both defend and attack effectively, as evidenced by their two clean sheets in the last five matches and an average of 1.2 goals scored per game.
Their opponents, Montpellier, are struggling to find form, suffering three consecutive losses with a concerning inability to score. Their recent defeats against Lille (0-1), Rennes (0-4), and Nice (0-2) highlight a defensive frailty, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match while scoring only 0.4. The absence of clean sheets in recent matches further underlines their defensive woes.
Final Prediction
Auxerre's recent performances and their superior league standing give them a significant edge over Montpellier. Their improved defensive record and capacity to find the back of the net make them favorites to capitalize on Montpellier's vulnerabilities. A key factor to watch will be Auxerre's ability to exploit Montpellier's defensive lapses, which could be decisive in securing the predicted home victory.
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