Ligue 1 2026-2027: Lorient vs Monaco Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lorient

Home Team
36%
VS

Monaco

Away Team
35%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 42%
No Goal: 58%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Lorient

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lorient
Chance creation (xG data) +6.4 Monaco
Attack +5.2 Monaco
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.4 Monaco
Defense +0.7 Lorient

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Lorient. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lorient attack & chance creation +5.0 Under
Form & results +2.9 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Monaco attack & chance creation +1.5 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10 5 5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9 4 5 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12 10 2 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
6 Paris SG 6 3 2 1 11 8 3 11
7 Brest 6 2 2 2 12 9 3 8
8 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6 6 0 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 5 7 -2 8
10 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 1 7
11 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Angers 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9 8 1 6
14 Le Mans 6 1 3 2 10 12 -2 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8 16 -8 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4 13 -9 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4 8 -4 2

Recent Trends

Lorient W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Le Mans (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Troyes (Goals: 1 - 2)

Monaco D W D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lorient

xG (avg) 0.73
xGA (avg) 1.31
Clean Sheets 2

Monaco

xG (avg) 1.01
xGA (avg) 1.28
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lorient are the narrowest pick to win at 36%, just ahead of Monaco at 35%, with a draw at 28%. The goals outlook leans under 2.5 at 56%.

Match Analysis

Lorient’s home advantage keeps them fractionally ahead, but Monaco have scored more often this season, with 10 goals to Lorient’s six. Monaco’s attacking play and chance creation are the clearest counterweight to the home side’s edge. Lorient’s recent 1-0 win over Paris FC showed they can keep a clean sheet, while Monaco’s latest match ended 2-2 against Toulouse. At home, Lorient have scored 1.3 goals per game, but their average of 0.7 expected goals suggests their actual returns have exceeded the chances created. Monaco average 1.3 goals away from home, while conceding 0.7, so their ability to defend on the road may make it difficult for Lorient to turn possession into clear opportunities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 is the lean at 56%. Lorient’s attack and chance creation are the strongest influence towards a lower total, with Monaco’s away defensive record also pointing to a match where goals may be limited.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches
Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.3 corners. Recent totals were mixed, with 12 in Lorient’s win over Paris FC and eight in Monaco’s draw with Toulouse.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches
Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 24 shots. The latest matches produced 25 shots in Lorient’s game and 24 in Monaco’s, close to that estimate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lorient wins by X goals. Negative = Monaco wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lorient vs Monaco with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lorient vs Monaco
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about 0.2 goals in Monaco’s favour. That is a slight away lean, despite Lorient having the marginally higher win probability.

Final Prediction

Lorient’s home advantage could decide a close match, but Monaco’s stronger scoring record gives them a clear route to overturn the forecast. If Lorient’s home attack again creates fewer chances than its goal return suggests, Monaco’s defensive record away from home could prove decisive.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel