Ligue 1 2024-2025: Montpellier vs St Etienne Prediction

Montpellier

Home Team
58%
VS

St Etienne

Away Team
20%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 25 20 5 0 70 24 46 65
2 Marseille 25 15 4 6 52 30 22 49
3 Nice 25 13 7 5 49 30 19 46
4 Monaco 25 13 5 7 49 32 17 44
5 Lille 25 12 8 5 40 27 13 44
6 Lyon 25 12 6 7 46 31 15 42
7 Strasbourg 25 11 7 7 39 32 7 40
8 Lens 25 10 6 9 30 29 1 36
9 Brest 25 11 3 11 38 40 -2 36
10 Toulouse 25 9 7 9 32 27 5 34
11 Auxerre 25 8 7 10 36 38 -2 31
12 Rennes 25 9 2 14 35 36 -1 29
13 Angers 25 7 6 12 26 40 -14 27
14 Nantes 25 5 9 11 28 43 -15 24
15 Reims 25 5 7 13 26 40 -14 22
16 Le Havre 25 6 3 16 24 51 -27 21
17 St Etienne 25 5 5 15 25 57 -32 20
18 Montpellier 25 4 3 18 21 59 -38 15

Recent Trends

Montpellier ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)

St Etienne ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Angers (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Montpellier

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.62
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.50
# Clean Sheets: 0

St Etienne

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.22
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 3.30
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Montpellier and St Etienne sees Montpellier with a favorable 58.0% probability of winning, compared to St Etienne's 20.0%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 22.0%. Given the current standings, Montpellier is languishing at the bottom of the league in 18th place, while St Etienne sits slightly above in 17th. The game is expected to have more than 2.5 goals, with a 58.0% probability of this outcome.

Match Analysis

Montpellier's recent form has been worrying, with three consecutive losses where they failed to score any goals. They faced Lille, Rennes, and Nice, conceding a total of seven goals without finding the net. Their average goals scored in the last five games is a mere 0.8, while they concede an average of 2.8 goals, highlighting their defensive frailties. Despite a modest expected goals tally of 1.622, their inability to convert these chances into actual goals is a pressing concern. St Etienne, on the other hand, have also struggled but showed slightly more resilience. Their recent performances include two draws against Le Havre and Angers, and a loss to Nice. They managed to score in each of these games, averaging 1.0 goals per match over the last five outings. However, defensively, they remain vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.6 goals. With an expected goals conceded figure of 3.298, it is clear their defense will need to tighten up to avoid further setbacks.

Final Prediction

Montpellier's predicted edge in this match stems from their need to break a losing streak and capitalize on home advantage. The key factor to watch will be their ability to convert expected goals into actual goals, as this has been a significant stumbling block recently. St Etienne's defensive weaknesses might be exploited, providing Montpellier an opportunity to climb out of the relegation zone with a crucial victory.