Ligue 1 2026-2027: Nice vs Strasbourg Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nice

Home Team
46%
VS

Strasbourg

Away Team
27%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 27.7
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Nice

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Nice
Chance creation (xG data) +3.7 Nice
Attack +3.6 Strasbourg
Results & dominance +1.7 Nice
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Strasbourg

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Nice. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Strasbourg defense +5.3 Over
Nice attack & chance creation +2.6 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.8 Over
Nice defense +1.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10 2 8 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8 3 5 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 9 -1 10
6 Paris SG 5 2 2 1 8 7 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 10 0 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 9 0 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 12 -5 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5 6 -1 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9 9 0 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4 11 -7 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7 8 -1 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4 7 -3 2

Recent Trends

Nice W L D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Le Mans (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 0)

Strasbourg L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 6 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nice

xG (avg) 1.42
xGA (avg) 1.70
Clean Sheets 1

Strasbourg

xG (avg) 1.31
xGA (avg) 1.97
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Nice are the most likely winners at 46%, with a draw and a Strasbourg win each rated at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is favored at 60%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and a slight edge in creating chances are the main reasons Nice are favored. Their home scoring has been limited, at 1.0 goal per game, but their latest result was a 2-1 win over Lille. They managed that despite being outshot 21-10, a reminder that a high shot count for the opposition does not automatically mean Nice will drop points. Strasbourg’s attack offers a clear counterweight, with 10 goals in five league games. Their latest outing ended in a 1-2 defeat away to Paris FC, where they had only five shots to Paris FC’s 17. Their away defending is also a concern, with 2.7 goals conceded per game away from home, and they have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%. Strasbourg’s defensive record is the strongest reason for that expectation, while Nice’s recent home attack has been less productive and could keep the total down.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nice
Corners in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.5 corners. Recent totals have varied, from three in Strasbourg’s trip to Paris FC to 11 away to Troyes, so the projection points to a middle ground rather than a clear trend.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nice
Shots in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 28 shots. Nice’s latest match against Lille produced 31, while Strasbourg’s visit to Paris FC had 22, giving reason to expect a substantial combined count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nice wins by X goals. Negative = Strasbourg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nice vs Strasbourg with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nice vs Strasbourg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about a quarter of a goal in Nice’s favour. That fits a modest home lean, rather than a forecast of a comfortable win.

Final Prediction

Strasbourg’s attack could overturn the forecast if it turns its scoring form into chances against Nice. Nice’s win over Lille came despite a large shot deficit, and repeating that level of resistance may be difficult.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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