Troyes

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1622 · #3 Ligue 2 On script Updated May 09, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #15 of 18 39.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.3%
Champions League 4.6%
Europa League 5.2%
Relegation playoff 10.8%
Relegation 22.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Troyes?

On script 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Troyes's results were 15.7% easier to call than the Ligue 2 average. How this is measured.

MarketTroyesLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.7% 41.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.3% 51.9%
Both teams to score 55.2% 47.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Ligue 2 #3 1518 1657 1622
2024-25 Ligue 2 #5 1469 1551 1542
2023-24 Ligue 2 #12 1590 1604 1491
2022-23 Ligue 1 #20 1482 1516 1283
2021-22 Ligue 1 #12 1471 1494 1447
2020-21 Ligue 2 #2 1593 1672 1620
2019-20 Ligue 2 #3 1664 1664 1596
2018-19 Ligue 2 #1 1534 1698 1686
2017-18 Ligue 1 #19 1498 1525 1347
2015-16 Ligue 1 #21 1498 1498 1290

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 at Grenoble W Troyes 45.8% · draw 28.4% L ✗
May 02, 2026 vs Laval W Troyes 68.4% · draw 20.4% W ✓
Apr 25, 2026 at Saint-Étienne L Troyes 25.0% · draw 30.0% W ✗
Apr 18, 2026 vs Boulogne W Troyes 62.6% · draw 23.3% W ✓
Apr 13, 2026 at Rodez W Troyes 41.2% · draw 29.3% L ✗
Apr 04, 2026 at Montpellier W Troyes 37.7% · draw 30.5% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 vs Dunkerque W Troyes 50.5% · draw 28.6% W ✓
Mar 16, 2026 at Annecy W Troyes 37.4% · draw 30.3% W ✓
Mar 07, 2026 vs Clermont W Troyes 60.6% · draw 24.0% W ✓
Mar 02, 2026 at Amiens W Troyes 51.3% · draw 24.6% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/troyes">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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