Premier League 2025-2026: Bournemouth vs Burnley Prediction

Bournemouth

Home Team
89%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
5%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 16 11 3 2 30 10 20 36
2 Man City 16 11 1 4 38 16 22 34
3 Aston Villa 16 10 3 3 25 17 8 33
4 Chelsea 16 8 4 4 27 15 12 28
5 Crystal Palace 16 7 5 4 20 15 5 26
6 Man United 16 7 5 4 30 26 4 26
7 Liverpool 16 8 2 6 26 24 2 26
8 Sunderland 16 7 5 4 19 17 2 26
9 Everton 16 7 3 6 18 19 -1 24
10 Brighton 16 6 5 5 25 23 2 23
11 Tottenham 16 6 4 6 25 21 4 22
12 Newcastle 16 6 4 6 21 20 1 22
13 Bournemouth 16 5 6 5 25 28 -3 21
14 Fulham 16 6 2 8 23 26 -3 20
15 Brentford 16 6 2 8 22 25 -3 20
16 Nott'm Forest 16 5 3 8 17 25 -8 18
17 Leeds 16 4 4 8 20 30 -10 16
18 West Ham 16 3 4 9 19 32 -13 13
19 Burnley 16 3 1 12 18 33 -15 10
20 Wolves 16 0 2 14 9 35 -26 2

Recent Trends

Bournemouth ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Man United (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Chelsea (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sunderland (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 2)

Burnley ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Chelsea (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.68
# Clean Sheets: 1

Burnley

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.56
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

In an intriguing Premier League clash, Bournemouth is expected to come out victorious against Burnley with a commanding probability of 89.0%. The likelihood of the match having over 2.5 goals stands at 53.0%, suggesting an action-packed affair. Currently, Bournemouth sits comfortably in 13th place, while Burnley struggles in the relegation zone at 19th, which underscores the disparity in form between the two sides.

Match Analysis

Bournemouth's recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with two draws and a loss in their last three games. They managed a high-scoring 4-4 draw against Manchester United away from home, demonstrating their attacking capabilities. However, they followed this with a goalless home draw against Chelsea and a narrow defeat to Everton. Despite these mixed results, Bournemouth's average goals scored per game over the last five matches stands at 1.4, and they have maintained a solid defense, conceding just 0.8 goals on average. On the other hand, Burnley finds themselves on a downward trajectory, having lost their last three matches. Their struggles are highlighted by a porous defense, which has conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game over the last five fixtures. Burnley's inability to keep a clean sheet recently has been a significant issue, compounded by their average expected goals conceded of 2.564, one of the highest in the league. Despite scoring 1.6 goals on average, their defensive frailties have overshadowed any attacking resilience.

Final Prediction

Bournemouth's edge in this matchup stems from their superior defensive solidity and the ability to score against stronger teams, as evidenced by their recent draw against Manchester United. Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities, coupled with their current losing streak, put them at a disadvantage. A key factor to watch will be how Bournemouth's attack exploits Burnley's defensive weaknesses, potentially leading to an entertaining, goal-rich encounter.