Premier League 2026-2027: Fulham vs Hull Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fulham

Home Team
56%
VS

Hull

Away Team
20%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 26.7
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Fulham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Fulham
Chance creation (xG data) +4.6 Fulham
Defense +4.4 Fulham
Results & dominance +4.0 Fulham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.7 Hull

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 73% for Fulham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Fulham attack & chance creation +5.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Hull attack & chance creation +1.9 Under
Fulham defense +1.5 Over
Form & results +1.4 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 6 6 0 0 16 5 11 18
2 Arsenal 6 5 0 1 10 5 5 15
3 Brighton 6 4 1 1 18 5 13 13
4 Brentford 6 2 4 0 12 6 6 10
5 Everton 6 2 4 0 8 5 3 10
6 Chelsea 6 3 1 2 15 13 2 10
7 Leeds 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
8 Hull 6 2 3 1 8 6 2 9
9 Liverpool 6 2 3 1 7 7 0 9
10 Ipswich 6 3 0 3 9 12 -3 9
11 Newcastle 6 2 2 2 10 13 -3 8
12 Crystal Palace 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
13 Man United 6 1 3 2 9 9 0 6
14 Coventry 6 2 0 4 5 11 -6 6
15 Nott'm Forest 6 1 2 3 5 8 -3 5
16 Aston Villa 6 1 2 3 6 11 -5 5
17 Sunderland 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
18 Bournemouth 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
19 Tottenham 6 0 3 3 3 9 -6 3
20 Fulham 6 0 2 4 6 10 -4 2

Recent Trends

Fulham L D D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Ipswich (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)

Hull D L D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Coventry (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fulham

xG (avg) 2.01
xGA (avg) 2.35
Clean Sheets 1

Hull

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 1.26
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are favored to win at 56%, with a draw at 23% and a Hull win at 20%. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 55%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Fulham also rated ahead in chance creation and defence. Their home attack has generated 2.0 expected goals per match, but they have conceded 2.4 expected goals at home, giving Hull opportunities if Fulham’s defence remains open. Fulham’s latest outing was a 1-2 defeat at Ipswich, leaving them without a league win in six matches. Hull arrive after a 2-2 draw with Everton and have scored in each of their last three listed games. Their overall strength is a counterweight to Fulham’s home advantage, so the hosts’ edge is real but not overwhelming.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
Hull
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is a narrow lean at 55%. Fulham’s chance creation and home defensive record push the expectation towards goals, while Hull’s attack is a modest counterweight.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches
Hull
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The estimate is 10.3 corners in total. Recent Hull matches have featured plenty of corner activity, including 13 against Everton and 11 against Newcastle.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches
Hull
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The estimate is 27 shots. Recent match totals have ranged from 24 to 41, supporting the expectation of sustained attempts at goal.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fulham wins by X goals. Negative = Hull wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fulham vs Hull with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fulham vs Hull
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Fulham are projected to finish about 0.4 goals ahead, a modest home-side margin consistent with their stronger win probability.

Final Prediction

Hull’s ability to find the net could change the picture: they scored twice in the 2-2 draw with Everton, despite Fulham being the likelier winner.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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