Ipswich

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1489 · #11 Premier League 3W-0D-3L · 9 pts In line Updated Oct 12, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #13 of 20 46.0 expected pts · currently 9 pts after 6 matches

League title 0.0%
Champions League places 1.2%
Europa League 4.4%
Relegation 14.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Ipswich?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Ipswich's results were 7.0% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.

MarketIpswichLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 48.8% 45.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.8% 51.0%
Both teams to score 46.3% 52.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Premier League #11 1518 1518 1489
2025-26 Championship #3 1502 1674 1648
2024-25 Premier League #19 1467 1467 1272
2023-24 Championship #1 1429 1667 1651
2022-23 League One #1 1554 1776 1767
2021-22 League One #9 1492 1617 1569
2020-21 League One #11 1498 1573 1492
2019-20 League One #14 1531 1656 1448
2018-19 Championship #22 1470 1470 1355
2017-18 Championship #15 1470 1550 1462
2016-17 Championship #20 1535 1535 1442
2015-16 Championship #8 1550 1610 1528
2014-15 Championship #8 1551 1691 1559
2013-14 Championship #10 1518 1580 1545
2012-13 Championship #5 1486 1565 1536
2011-12 Championship #14 1525 1546 1484
2010-11 Championship #14 1532 1570 1487
2009-10 Championship #14 1530 1546 1496
2008-09 Championship #6 1510 1593 1573
2007-08 Championship #7 1547 1574 1552
2006-07 Championship #11 1419 1523 1523
2005-06 Championship #20 1518 1543 1423

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Fulham W Ipswich 42.5% · draw 28.1% W ✓

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