Hull
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #10 of 20 48.7 expected pts · currently 9 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 24 in Championship 73 pts · 21W-10D-15L · GD +4
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Hull?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Hull's results were 6.1% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Hull | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 39.0% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #9 | 1520 | 1546 | 1519 |
| 2025-26 | Championship | #12 | 1502 | 1631 | 1511 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #20 | 1530 | 1564 | 1464 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #8 | 1498 | 1595 | 1541 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #9 | 1483 | 1528 | 1528 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #16 | 1389 | 1487 | 1455 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #1 | 1536 | 1684 | 1656 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #24 | 1482 | 1550 | 1303 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #12 | 1458 | 1598 | 1498 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #14 | 1556 | 1569 | 1477 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #18 | 1518 | 1552 | 1372 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #4 | 1528 | 1671 | 1569 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #18 | 1529 | 1529 | 1397 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #8 | 1505 | 1615 | 1513 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #15 | 1482 | 1581 | 1483 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #12 | 1600 | 1600 | 1506 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #3 | 1432 | 1643 | 1606 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #16 | 1469 | 1485 | 1445 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #13 | 1498 | 1528 | 1485 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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