Hull
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 24 in Championship 73 pts · 21W–10D–15L · GD +4
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Hull?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Hull's results were 6.1% harder to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Hull | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 39.0% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #12 | 1502 | 1631 | 1511 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #20 | 1530 | 1564 | 1464 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #8 | 1498 | 1595 | 1541 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #9 | 1483 | 1528 | 1528 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #16 | 1389 | 1487 | 1455 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #1 | 1536 | 1684 | 1656 |
| 2019-20 | Championship | #24 | 1482 | 1550 | 1303 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #12 | 1458 | 1598 | 1498 |
| 2017-18 | Championship | #14 | 1556 | 1569 | 1477 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #18 | 1518 | 1552 | 1372 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #4 | 1528 | 1671 | 1569 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #18 | 1529 | 1529 | 1397 |
| 2012-13 | Championship | #8 | 1505 | 1615 | 1513 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #15 | 1482 | 1581 | 1483 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #12 | 1600 | 1600 | 1506 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #3 | 1432 | 1643 | 1606 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #16 | 1469 | 1485 | 1445 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #13 | 1498 | 1528 | 1485 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Norwich | L Hull 33.5% · draw 31.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Charlton | L Hull 32.1% · draw 32.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Leicester | L Hull 20.9% · draw 26.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Birmingham | L Hull 34.2% · draw 31.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Sheffield United | L Hull 23.4% · draw 29.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Coventry | L Hull 26.3% · draw 27.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Oxford | L Hull 32.2% · draw 32.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Sheffield Wednesday | W Hull 67.8% · draw 17.9% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at West Brom | L Hull 19.4% · draw 27.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 10, 2026 | at Wrexham | L Hull 20.8% · draw 27.3% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Championship title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/hull">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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