Serie A 2026-2027: Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Cagliari

Home Team
36%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
36%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.4
Expected Shots: 27.6
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Cagliari

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Cagliari
Chance creation (xG data) +6.2 Bologna
Results & dominance +3.1 Bologna
Defense +2.6 Bologna
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.5 Cagliari

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Cagliari. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Cagliari attack & chance creation +7.7 Under
Cagliari defense +6.6 Over
Bologna attack & chance creation +4.3 Under
Form & results +3.0 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 21 9 12 19
2 Lazio 7 6 1 0 14 4 10 19
3 Roma 7 5 2 0 16 3 13 17
4 Milan 7 4 3 0 14 7 7 15
5 Como 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
6 Frosinone 7 4 1 2 13 9 4 13
7 Cagliari 7 4 1 2 6 7 -1 13
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 9 8 1 11
9 Napoli 7 3 1 3 10 7 3 10
10 Torino 7 3 1 3 10 9 1 10
11 Atalanta 7 3 0 4 10 11 -1 9
12 Lecce 7 3 0 4 9 12 -3 9
13 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
14 Monza 7 2 1 4 13 15 -2 7
15 Bologna 7 1 2 4 6 10 -4 5
16 Udinese 7 1 1 5 9 16 -7 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 13 -8 4
18 Fiorentina 7 1 1 5 8 17 -9 4
19 Parma 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Venezia 7 1 0 6 6 16 -10 3

Recent Trends

Cagliari L D W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Monza (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)

Bologna L W D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.02
xGA (avg) 2.27
Clean Sheets 2

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 1.21
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cagliari is the selected result at 36%, level with Bologna on 36%, while a draw is rated at 28%. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the strongest reason for the slight selection of Cagliari, though Bologna has the better indicators for chance creation, recent results and defending. That leaves little between them: Cagliari’s home setting is balanced by Bologna’s ability to create chances. Both sides come into this match after a heavy defeat, Cagliari losing 0-4 away to Monza and Bologna falling 1-3 at home to Inter. Bologna have scored 0.7 goals per away game despite averaging 1.1 expected goals in those matches, suggesting their chance creation has not yet translated into goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is more likely, at 56%. The main support comes from both attacks’ chance creation, particularly Cagliari’s, while Cagliari’s defensive record is a counterpoint that could help push the total higher.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.4 corners. Recent totals have varied, from nine in Cagliari’s latest match to eight in Bologna’s, so the projection points to a moderate increase on those figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 28 shots. The sides combined for 30 in Cagliari’s latest match and 28 in Bologna’s, which fits a forecast of plenty of attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Cagliari wins by X goals. Negative = Bologna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Cagliari vs Bologna with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Cagliari vs Bologna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about 0.1 goals in Bologna’s favour. That is effectively a level contest, consistent with the equal win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s chance creation could overturn the slight home selection if it becomes more clinical. Cagliari’s home advantage matters, but the visitors’ recent away scoring has lagged behind the quality of chances they have created.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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