Monza
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #16 of 20 43.8 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 20 in Serie B 76 pts · 22W–10D–6L · GD +29
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Monza?
On script 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Monza's results were 10.5% easier to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Monza | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 54.5% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #3 | 1518 | 1675 | 1632 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #20 | 1502 | 1502 | 1254 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #16 | 1480 | 1529 | 1406 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #10 | 1471 | 1604 | 1531 |
| 2021-22 | Serie B | #5 | 1569 | 1649 | 1600 |
| 2020-21 | Serie B | #4 | 1498 | 1629 | 1585 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | vs Empoli | W Monza 69.5% · draw 19.3% | D ✗ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Mantova | W Monza 44.2% · draw 28.6% | L ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Modena | W Monza 49.9% · draw 27.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | at Sampdoria | W Monza 42.2% · draw 28.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Bari | W Monza 79.6% · draw 13.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Catanzaro | W Monza 41.7% · draw 28.7% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Venezia | L Monza 29.1% · draw 29.8% | D ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Reggiana | W Monza 53.6% · draw 24.5% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Palermo | W Monza 39.0% · draw 30.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Spezia | W Monza 47.0% · draw 27.0% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/monza">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/monza">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>