Serie A 2026-2027: Como vs Sassuolo Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Como

Home Team
74%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
11%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 11.1
Expected Shots: 31.7
Expected Spread: +1.3

Why the Model Leans Como

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Como
Defense +7.8 Como
Results & dominance +5.4 Como
Chance creation (xG data) +5.3 Como
Attack +3.7 Como

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 87% for Como. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Como attack & chance creation +6.8 Over
Sassuolo attack & chance creation +3.0 Over
Sassuolo defense +3.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.2 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 7 6 1 0 21 9 12 19
2 Lazio 7 6 1 0 14 4 10 19
3 Roma 7 5 2 0 16 3 13 17
4 Milan 7 4 3 0 14 7 7 15
5 Como 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
6 Frosinone 7 4 1 2 13 9 4 13
7 Cagliari 7 4 1 2 6 7 -1 13
8 Juventus 7 3 2 2 9 8 1 11
9 Napoli 7 3 1 3 10 7 3 10
10 Torino 7 3 1 3 10 9 1 10
11 Atalanta 7 3 0 4 10 11 -1 9
12 Lecce 7 3 0 4 9 12 -3 9
13 Sassuolo 7 2 2 3 12 14 -2 8
14 Monza 7 2 1 4 13 15 -2 7
15 Bologna 7 1 2 4 6 10 -4 5
16 Udinese 7 1 1 5 9 16 -7 4
17 Genoa 7 1 1 5 5 13 -8 4
18 Fiorentina 7 1 1 5 8 17 -9 4
19 Parma 7 1 1 5 4 13 -9 4
20 Venezia 7 1 0 6 6 16 -10 3

Recent Trends

Como W D L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 4 - 1)

Sassuolo L D L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Monza (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

xG (avg) 2.81
xGA (avg) 1.34
Clean Sheets 1

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 2.16
xGA (avg) 2.12
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Como are favoured to win at 74%, with a draw at 16% and a Sassuolo win at 11%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 66%.

Match Analysis

Como’s home advantage is reinforced by the contrast between their chance creation and Sassuolo’s away defending. Como average 2.8 expected goals at home but only 1.0 actual goals, while Sassuolo have conceded an average of 2.5 away from home. If Como convert more of their chances, they have a clear route to control the match. Como’s latest result was a 3-1 win away to Fiorentina, while Sassuolo’s most recent match ended in a 4-2 defeat away to Frosinone. Sassuolo have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches, a concern against a Como side that has scored 12 goals in seven league games. The home side’s defensive record, seven goals conceded in seven matches, also gives them a stronger platform.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 66%. Como’s strong home chance creation is the leading reason, with Sassuolo’s away defensive record adding to the case for goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Como
Corners in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 11.1 corners. Recent matches have produced healthy totals for both sides, including 16 combined in Como’s latest game and nine in Sassuolo’s.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 32 shots. Recent matches have featured substantial shooting volume, including 35 shots in Como’s latest outing and 35 in Sassuolo’s match against Frosinone.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Como wins by X goals. Negative = Sassuolo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Como vs Sassuolo with expected spread of +1.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Como vs Sassuolo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 1.3 goals in Como’s favour. Their home advantage and the gap between the teams’ defensive records support that forecast.

Final Prediction

Sassuolo’s attack is the clearest route to changing the outlook: they have scored 12 goals in seven league matches, matching Como’s total. If they can make that threat count against Como’s defence, the home side’s missed chances could become costly.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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