Frosinone
Serie B · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #17 of 20 43.8 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 20 in Serie B 81 pts · 23W–12D–3L · GD +42
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie B simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Frosinone?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 33 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Frosinone's results were 7.5% easier to call than the Serie B average. How this is measured.
| Market | Frosinone | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 60.6% | 49.7% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | 54.2% |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 52.7% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie B | #1 | 1520 | 1715 | 1715 |
| 2024-25 | Serie B | #9 | 1652 | 1652 | 1533 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #18 | 1467 | 1511 | 1383 |
| 2022-23 | Serie B | #1 | 1546 | 1712 | 1696 |
| 2021-22 | Serie B | #11 | 1521 | 1655 | 1522 |
| 2020-21 | Serie B | #11 | 1464 | 1580 | 1527 |
| 2019-20 | Serie B | #13 | 1534 | 1640 | 1494 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #19 | 1477 | 1477 | 1335 |
| 2017-18 | Serie B | #4 | 1533 | 1643 | 1578 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #20 | 1471 | 1471 | 1341 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | vs Mantova | W Frosinone 68.7% · draw 19.6% | W ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Juve Stabia | W Frosinone 38.9% · draw 30.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Carrarese | W Frosinone 55.8% · draw 24.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Modena | L Frosinone 32.1% · draw 31.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Palermo | W Frosinone 42.9% · draw 29.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Padova | W Frosinone 79.5% · draw 13.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Sudtirol | W Frosinone 40.4% · draw 30.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vs Bari | W Frosinone 77.2% · draw 14.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Cesena | W Frosinone 44.8% · draw 28.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Sampdoria | W Frosinone 53.7% · draw 25.7% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/frosinone">Serie B title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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