Serie A 2026-2027: Lazio vs Monza Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lazio

Home Team
49%
VS

Monza

Away Team
25%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Lazio

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lazio
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.6 Lazio
Chance creation (xG data) +3.8 Monza
Defense +2.5 Lazio
Attack +0.8 Monza

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Lazio. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lazio attack & chance creation +2.4 Over
Monza attack & chance creation +2.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.6 Under
Lazio defense +1.4 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Roma 5 4 1 0 14 3 11 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15 8 7 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5 2 3 12
5 Milan 5 3 2 0 10 4 6 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9 4 5 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9 6 3 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9 9 0 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5 7 -2 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5 10 -5 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4 7 -3 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8 12 -4 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6 12 -6 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3 6 -3 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3 10 -7 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4 13 -9 0

Recent Trends

Lazio W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)

Monza W L D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

xG (avg) 2.23
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 3

Monza

xG (avg) 2.14
xGA (avg) 1.37
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are the likeliest winners at 49%, with a draw at 26% and a Monza win at 25%. The goals lean is towards over 2.5, at 55%.

Match Analysis

Lazio’s home advantage and stronger overall record are the clearest points in their favour. Their defensive numbers also offer a contrast: Lazio have kept three clean sheets in their last five, while Monza have not kept one in that span. Monza have conceded three times in their 3-2 defeat to Lecce, a reminder of the risk their defence can pose against Lazio. Monza may still trouble the hosts by creating chances. Their expected-goals rate of 2.1 per game is higher than their 1.3 actual goals, suggesting their finishing has lagged behind their opportunities. Lazio have also scored less than their chances suggest, with 1.5 goals against 2.2 expected goals per game. They have won two of their last three, including a 2-0 result away to Venezia.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Monza
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 55%. Both attacks and their chance creation point towards goals, though Lazio’s defence is a counterweight after three clean sheets in five matches.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Monza
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.3 corners. Recent matches for both sides have produced totals in the 9-to-12 range, supporting a figure around that mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Monza
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 25 shots. Recent match totals for Lazio and Monza have often reached the mid-20s or higher, suggesting chances at both ends.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lazio wins by X goals. Negative = Monza wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lazio vs Monza with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lazio vs Monza
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Lazio’s favour. Their home advantage and defensive record support a narrow edge rather than a comfortable win.

Final Prediction

Monza’s chance creation is the clearest route to upsetting the forecast. If they turn more of those opportunities into goals, Lazio’s defensive advantage may not be enough.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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