NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Philadelphia 76ers

Home Team
61.9%
VS

New York Knicks

Away Team
38.1%
2025-2026 Season

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the Philadelphia 76ers to win (61.9% probability). Expected starting fives — Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Joel Embiid. New York: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Landry Shamet, Mikal Bridges, Karl‑Anthony Towns.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 231.89, suggesting a relatively high‑scoring affair and a fairly fast pace. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 1.83, a small home advantage — despite that modest margin the projection still singles out Philadelphia as the likeliest winner.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.9 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Probability distribution bar chart for total combined points in the Philadelphia 76ers versus New York Knicks NBA game. The X-axis shows possible total points values, and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function (CDF) chart for total points in Philadelphia 76ers versus New York Knicks. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability that the game total will be at or below each points threshold.

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - New York Knicks) 1.8 Most likely outcome: 1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Probability distribution bar chart for the point spread (home minus away) in the Philadelphia 76ers versus New York Knicks NBA game. Positive values indicate a home team lead, negative values an away team lead.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function (CDF) chart for the point spread in Philadelphia 76ers versus New York Knicks. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Game Analysis

Both teams enter this matchup 1–2 over their last three games. Philadelphia lost to Portland 135–118, beat Phoenix 109–103, and fell to the Lakers 119–115; the Sixers have been competitive but have allowed spikes in opponent scoring. New York lost a tight 137–134 game to Indiana, routed Detroit 118–80, and beat Boston 111–89; the Knicks have been streaky on both ends, capable of elite offense one night and low output the next. Looking at the expected starters, the Knicks group carries a higher average offensive rating (124.54) than the Sixers’ starters (119.22), and their average defensive rating (113.84) is slightly better than Philadelphia’s (115.28). Philadelphia’s starting five, however, includes two primary scorers — Tyrese Maxey (28.84 PPG) and Joel Embiid (26.61 PPG) — giving them a high scoring floor (team starters average 18.61 PPG each). New York’s starters average 16.98 PPG apiece, with Jalen Brunson (27.41) and Karl‑Anthony Towns (19.78) leading the way.

Final Prediction

Philadelphia’s combination of top-end scoring from Maxey and Embiid and a projected edge in the matchup environment is why the Sixers are favored. Key factor to watch: can Philly contain the Knicks’ efficient starting group (124.54 offensive rating) enough to let their stars dictate the game?

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