NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Phoenix Suns
Home Team
47.6%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away Team
52.4%
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are projected to win (52.4% probability). Expected starting fives: Phoenix — Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Royce O'Neale, Mark Williams; Oklahoma City — Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 219.78 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with a decent offensive flow on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -3.27, which means the visiting team is favored by roughly 3.3 points — an edge that lines up with the Thunder as the projected winners.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
219.8
Most likely outcome: 219 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Oklahoma City Thunder)
-3.3
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Both teams enter with similar short-term form. Phoenix is 1-2 over the last three games, recently beating Dallas 120-111 after losses of 103-109 to Philadelphia and 97-101 to Golden State. Oklahoma City is also 1-2, coming off a 119-110 win over the Lakers after losses of 106-112 to Houston and 106-116 to San Antonio. Each club showed offensive upside in their wins but defensive lapses in the losses.
Looking at the expected starters, Phoenix’s five average an offensive rating of 120.50 and a defensive rating of 113.92, with an average of about 16.47 points made per starter. Devin Booker and Mark Williams stand out offensively (Booker averaging 25.19, Williams with ORtg 136.3). Oklahoma City’s starting five average an offensive rating of 115.44, a stronger defensive rating of 107.10, and about 12.45 points made per starter. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein combine high offensive ratings (124.2 and 121.0) with elite defensive numbers (both 104.4), which helps explain the Thunder’s defensive edge.
Final Prediction
The Thunder’s advantage comes down to the starting unit’s superior defensive rating and rim protection, which can blunt Phoenix’s scoring threats. Key factor to watch: how Oklahoma City’s interior defense (Holmgren/Hartenstein) handles Phoenix’s attack, especially Devin Booker and Mark Williams.
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