NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
57.2%
VS
Houston Rockets
Away Team
42.8%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the New York Knicks to win with a 57.2% probability. Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson (OFFENSIVE RATING: 122.2, DEFENSIVE RATING: 117.6), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 27.137254901960784; Josh Hart (OFFENSIVE RATING: 121.3, DEFENSIVE RATING: 111.0), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 12.136363636363637; Mikal Bridges (OFFENSIVE RATING: 128.9, DEFENSIVE RATING: 114.2), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 15.785714285714286; OG Anunoby (OFFENSIVE RATING: 113.3, DEFENSIVE RATING: 113.1), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 16.357142857142858; Karl-Anthony Towns (OFFENSIVE RATING: 119.4, DEFENSIVE RATING: 110.2), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 19.82692307692308. Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson (OFFENSIVE RATING: 121.2, DEFENSIVE RATING: 113.6), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 17.471698113207548; Jabari Smith Jr. (OFFENSIVE RATING: 122.4, DEFENSIVE RATING: 113.9), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 15.20754716981132; Kevin Durant (OFFENSIVE RATING: 123.9, DEFENSIVE RATING: 114.6), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 26.0; Tari Eason (OFFENSIVE RATING: 114.3, DEFENSIVE RATING: 111.4), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 11.96875; Alperen Şengün (OFFENSIVE RATING: 114.5, DEFENSIVE RATING: 110.9), AVG_POINTS_MADE: 20.53191489361702.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected combined total is 224.33 points, suggesting an above-average scoring game and a solid pace. The expected spread is 4.22 (Home - Away), giving about a 4.22-point edge to the home team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.3
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Houston Rockets)
4.2
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Over the last three games the Knicks are 1-2: a big 138-89 win over Philadelphia bookended by tight, high-scoring losses (134-137 to Indiana and 111-126 to Detroit). That pattern shows New York can explode offensively but has also allowed large point totals. The Rockets are 2-1 in their last three with lower-scoring, close results — 105-101 over Charlotte, a 102-105 loss to the Clippers, and a 102-95 win — indicating more controlled, defensive-leaning contests.
The five projected Knicks starters average an offensive rating of 121.02, a defensive rating of 113.22, and average 18.248679751620928 points made per starter. The Rockets’ five average an offensive rating of 119.26, a defensive rating of 112.88, and average 18.235982035327178 points made per starter. New York holds a slight edge in offensive rating while the defensive ratings and scoring per starter are nearly identical; Jalen Brunson’s 27.137254901960784 and Kevin Durant’s 26.0 will be important scoring matchups, while Karl-Anthony Towns (19.82692307692308) and Alperen Şengün (20.53191489361702) influence the interior battle.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ modest offensive advantage and the 4.22-point home edge help explain the 57.2% call for New York. Watch how Brunson’s scoring and the Knicks’ ability to limit Durant and Şengün in the paint decide the outcome.
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