NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Charlotte Hornets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
56.6%
VS
Charlotte Hornets
Away Team
43.4%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.6
DR
113.3
PTS
19.1
VS
LaMelo Ball
OR
113.9
DR
114.5
PTS
19.4
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
115.8
DR
111.6
PTS
16.6
VS
Brandon Miller
OR
111.7
DR
112.7
PTS
20.7
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
115.0
DR
114.3
PTS
14.3
VS
Kon Knueppel
OR
126.5
DR
116.6
PTS
19.2
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
117.6
DR
111.9
PTS
11.2
VS
Miles Bridges
OR
118.8
DR
115.8
PTS
17.5
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
118.9
DR
100.0
PTS
24.2
VS
Moussa Diabaté
OR
137.6
DR
111.7
PTS
8.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are projected to win (56.6% probability).
Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama
Expected starting five — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 228.07 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and a solid offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread is Home - Away = 5.12, favoring the home team (San Antonio) by about five points, giving the Spurs a clear edge on their own floor.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
228.1
Most likely outcome: 228 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Charlotte Hornets)
5.1
Most likely outcome: 5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
San Antonio’s rating has been rising over the last five games while Charlotte’s trend is falling.
San Antonio Spurs
1680.4
+7.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Denver Nuggets | 1680.4 | -13.8 |
| 2026-03-10 | Boston Celtics | 1694.2 | +8.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Houston Rockets | 1685.9 | +7.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1678.4 | +5.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | Detroit Pistons | 1672.8 | — |
Charlotte Hornets
1569.2
-11.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Sacramento Kings | 1569.2 | +4.2 |
| 2026-03-10 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1565.0 | +8.1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Phoenix Suns | 1556.9 | -11.4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Miami Heat | 1568.3 | -12.2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Boston Celtics | 1580.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
San Antonio Spurs
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 131 | 136 | -5 | |
| Boston Celtics | 125 | 116 | +9 | |
| Houston Rockets | 145 | 120 | +25 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 116 | 112 | +4 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 121 | 106 | +15 |
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 117 | 109 | +8 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 103 | 101 | +2 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 99 | 111 | -12 | |
| Miami Heat | 120 | 128 | -8 | |
| Boston Celtics | 118 | 89 | +29 |
Game Analysis
San Antonio is 2-1 in its last three games with a loss at Denver (131-136) sandwiched between wins over Boston (125-116) and Houston (145-120). They’ve shown the ability to score in bunches (145 and 131) while allowing varied outputs. Charlotte is also 2-1 recently, beating Sacramento (117-109) and Portland (103-101) before a 99-111 loss to Phoenix; their results lean toward lower team totals and closer finishes.
Looking at the expected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of about 117.18, a defensive rating around 110.22, and average points made per starter near 17.08, led by Victor Wembanyama’s two-way impact. Charlotte’s five average roughly a 121.7 offensive rating, a 114.26 defensive rating, and about 16.98 points made per starter, buoyed by Kon Knueppel and Moussa Diabaté offensively. That contrast — Charlotte’s higher starting offensive rating versus San Antonio’s better starting defense — frames the matchup.
Final Prediction
The Spurs’ defensive advantage and upward form give them the edge in a game expected to lean toward offense. Watch how Wembanyama affects Charlotte’s interior scoring and whether the Hornets’ high-end offensive pieces can overcome San Antonio’s defense.
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