NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Boston Celtics
Home Team
68.1%
VS
Phoenix Suns
Away Team
31.9%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Derrick White
OR
118.9
DR
112.5
PTS
17.4
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
120.2
DR
115.0
PTS
13.2
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
113.9
DR
113.5
PTS
28.2
VS
Devin Booker
OR
118.2
DR
116.8
PTS
25.4
SF
Jayson Tatum
OR
109.0
DR
106.8
PTS
19.8
VS
Jalen Green
OR
98.5
DR
113.1
PTS
17.4
PF
Sam Hauser
OR
116.0
DR
115.3
PTS
9.3
VS
Royce O'Neale
OR
114.8
DR
114.2
PTS
10.0
C
Neemias Queta
OR
134.4
DR
108.0
PTS
10.0
VS
Oso Ighodaro
OR
116.0
DR
112.4
PTS
6.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Boston Celtics are the pick to win (68.1% probability). Expected starting fives — Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta; Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 225.4 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with an active pace and plenty of offense. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 8.56, favoring the home team and giving a sizable edge to the favorites — a cushion that aligns with Boston being the projected winner.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.4
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Phoenix Suns)
8.6
Most likely outcome: 8 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Boston’s power rating has drifted slightly down over five games while Phoenix’s has trended upward.
Boston Celtics
1617.6
-2.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Washington Wizards | 1617.6 | +2.6 |
| 2026-03-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1615.0 | -7.5 |
| 2026-03-10 | San Antonio Spurs | 1622.5 | -8.2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1630.7 | +11.1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Dallas Mavericks | 1619.6 | — |
Phoenix Suns
1548.4
+12.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Toronto Raptors | 1548.4 | -11.3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Indiana Pacers | 1559.7 | +4.3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1555.4 | +8.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Charlotte Hornets | 1547.0 | +11.4 |
| 2026-03-06 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1535.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Boston Celtics
3-2 in last 5
W
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 111 | 100 | +11 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 102 | 104 | -2 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 116 | 125 | -9 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 109 | 98 | +11 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 120 | 100 | +20 |
Phoenix Suns
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 115 | 122 | -7 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 123 | 108 | +15 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 129 | 114 | +15 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 111 | 99 | +12 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 118 | 116 | +2 |
Game Analysis
Boston has gone 1-2 in the last three games (Win 111-100 vs Washington; Loss 102-104 vs Oklahoma City; Loss 116-125 vs San Antonio), showing inconsistency but still producing solid scoring and defensive efforts at times. Phoenix is 2-1 in the last three (Loss 115-122 vs Toronto; Win 123-108 vs Indiana; Win 129-114 vs Milwaukee), arriving with momentum from two convincing wins against quality opponents.
Looking at the expected starting fives, Boston’s five average an offensive rating of 118.44, defensive rating of 111.22, and average points made of 16.94 — figures that indicate a balanced and efficient unit. Phoenix’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 113.54, defensive rating of 114.30, and average points made of 14.40, showing solid scoring from Booker and Gillespie but slightly less overall efficiency. Neemias Queta’s 134.4 offensive rating stands out and could be a matchup factor inside.
Final Prediction
Boston’s higher combined ratings, home-field spread, and the overall efficiency advantage give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how Boston defends Devin Booker and how Queta’s offensive impact is handled — those matchups will likely decide the game.
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