NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
57.1%
VS

Phoenix Suns

Away Team
42.9%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
118.9
DR
117.6
PTS
11.6
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
119.3
DR
115.1
PTS
13.1
SG
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
118.1
DR
114.6
PTS
12.5
VS
Devin Booker
OR
118.1
DR
117.1
PTS
25.7
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.2
DR
115.6
PTS
14.5
VS
Jalen Green
OR
98.5
DR
113.9
PTS
17.6
PF
Julius Randle
OR
117.9
DR
114.9
PTS
21.1
VS
Royce O'Neale
OR
115.1
DR
114.3
PTS
9.9
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
132.3
DR
110.9
PTS
10.8
VS
Oso Ighodaro
OR
116.7
DR
112.5
PTS
5.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Minnesota Timberwolves are the pick to win (57.1% probability). Expected starting five — Minnesota: Ayo Dosunmu, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert; Phoenix: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 232.2 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring affair and an uptempo game environment. The projected spread is 2.16 (Home - Away), so the home team would enjoy a slim 2.16-point edge if they’re hosting.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.2 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Phoenix Suns) 2.2 Most likely outcome: 2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ power ratings are falling over the last five games, with Minnesota dropping more sharply (-20.8) than Phoenix (-6.2).

Minnesota Timberwolves

1558.1 -20.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-15 Oklahoma City Thunder 1558.1 -6.5
2026-03-13 Golden State Warriors 1564.6 +8.8
2026-03-11 Los Angeles Clippers 1555.8 -11.7
2026-03-10 Los Angeles Lakers 1567.5 -11.4
2026-03-07 Orlando Magic 1578.9 —

Phoenix Suns

1540.8 -6.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-16 Boston Celtics 1540.8 -7.6
2026-03-13 Toronto Raptors 1548.4 -11.3
2026-03-12 Indiana Pacers 1559.7 +4.3
2026-03-10 Milwaukee Bucks 1555.4 +8.4
2026-03-08 Charlotte Hornets 1547.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 103 116 -13
Golden State Warriors 127 117 +10
Los Angeles Clippers 128 153 -25
Los Angeles Lakers 106 120 -14
Orlando Magic 92 119 -27

Phoenix Suns

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 112 120 -8
Toronto Raptors 115 122 -7
Indiana Pacers 123 108 +15
Milwaukee Bucks 129 114 +15
Charlotte Hornets 111 99 +12

Game Analysis

Minnesota has been inconsistent in the last three games: a 127-117 win over Golden State sandwiched between losses to Oklahoma City (103-116) and a defensive collapse versus the Clippers (128-153). Phoenix has also been uneven, dropping back-to-back games to Boston (112-120) and Toronto (115-122) before a 123-108 win over Indiana. Both clubs show streakiness right now rather than steady form. Looking at the projected starters, Minnesota’s five average an offensive rating of about 120.3, defensive rating of about 114.7, and 14.1 points made per starter; Phoenix’s five average an offensive rating of about 113.5, defensive rating of about 114.6, and 14.4 points made per starter. Minnesota’s higher offensive profile — led by Rudy Gobert’s 132.3 offensive rating and Julius Randle’s scoring — gives them a clear scoring upside, while the two teams are nearly even on defensive rating.

Final Prediction

Minnesota’s edge comes from the stronger offensive ratings among their starters and the ability to generate efficient offense inside. Watch whether Minnesota can translate that offensive efficiency into stops — especially around the rim — because that will likely decide the game.

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