NBA 2025-2026: Orlando Magic vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Orlando Magic
Home Team
44.1%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away Team
55.9%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Suggs
OR
108.6
DR
108.2
PTS
13.9
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.6
DR
108.3
PTS
31.6
SG
Desmond Bane
OR
119.8
DR
116.5
PTS
20.6
VS
Ajay Mitchell
OR
119.7
DR
107.2
PTS
14.3
SF
Tristan Da Silva
OR
104.9
DR
114.2
PTS
9.5
VS
Luguentz Dort
OR
103.3
DR
111.1
PTS
8.5
PF
Paolo Banchero
OR
111.9
DR
114.3
PTS
22.2
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
124.2
DR
103.9
PTS
17.3
C
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.6
DR
113.0
PTS
11.8
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
122.7
DR
103.7
PTS
9.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win this one, with a 55.9% probability. Expected starting fives — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Tristan Da Silva, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.; Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined 232.34 points, suggesting a relatively high-scoring affair and a fairly uptempo game. The spread (Home − Away = −3.74) implies about a 3.7-point edge to the away side, effectively favoring Oklahoma City as the slight favorite.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.3
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Orlando Magic - Oklahoma City Thunder)
-3.7
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are trending upward in ELO over the last five games, with Oklahoma City’s rise larger than Orlando’s.
Orlando Magic
1554.4
+14.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Atlanta Hawks | 1554.4 | -11.1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Miami Heat | 1565.5 | +10.8 |
| 2026-03-12 | Washington Wizards | 1554.7 | +3.5 |
| 2026-03-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1551.2 | +11.1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1540.1 | — |
Oklahoma City Thunder
1686.2
+24.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1686.2 | +6.5 |
| 2026-03-12 | Boston Celtics | 1679.7 | +7.5 |
| 2026-03-09 | Denver Nuggets | 1672.2 | +5.9 |
| 2026-03-07 | Golden State Warriors | 1666.3 | +4.9 |
| 2026-03-04 | New York Knicks | 1661.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Orlando Magic
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 112 | 124 | -12 | |
| Miami Heat | 121 | 117 | +4 | |
| Washington Wizards | 136 | 131 | +5 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 128 | 122 | +6 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 130 | 91 | +39 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 116 | 103 | +13 | |
| Boston Celtics | 104 | 102 | +2 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 129 | 126 | +3 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 104 | 97 | +7 | |
| New York Knicks | 103 | 100 | +3 |
Game Analysis
Orlando is 2-1 in its last three, with wins over Miami (121–117) and Washington (136–131) and a loss at Atlanta (112–124); those scores show they can score in bunches but have also allowed big totals. Oklahoma City is rolling with a 3-0 stretch, beating Minnesota (116–103), Boston (104–102) and Denver (129–126), combining efficient scoring with enough stops in close games.
Looking at the projected starting fives, Orlando’s five average out to an offensive rating of 113.56 and defensive rating of 113.24, with a combined 78.0 points made per game (15.6 per player). Oklahoma City’s starters average a 121.10 offensive rating and 106.84 defensive rating, with a combined 81.6 points (16.3 per player). The Thunder’s edge in both offense and defense — driven by Shai’s 31.6 scoring average and strong marks from Chet and Hartenstein — is likely decisive.
Final Prediction
Oklahoma City’s superior two-way numbers and a hotter ELO trend give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how well Orlando defends Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and whether the Magic can contain Chet Holmgren/Isaiah Hartenstein inside.
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