NBA 2025-2026: Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Washington Wizards

Home Team
23.6%
VS

Detroit Pistons

Away Team
76.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Bub Carrington
OR
106.5
DR
124.5
PTS
10.0
VS
Daniss Jenkins
OR
101.2
DR
111.3
PTS
7.7
SG
Tre Johnson
OR
104.5
DR
123.8
PTS
12.4
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
112.7
DR
105.6
PTS
10.0
SF
Justin Champagnie
OR
119.8
DR
120.3
PTS
8.4
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.2
DR
115.5
PTS
11.8
PF
Will Riley
OR
106.0
DR
124.3
PTS
8.8
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
117.6
DR
112.2
PTS
13.2
C
Alex Sarr
OR
110.0
DR
116.6
PTS
16.9
VS
Jalen Duren
OR
131.7
DR
108.3
PTS
19.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Detroit Pistons are the pick to win with a 76.4% probability. Expected starting fives — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Justin Champagnie, Will Riley, Alex Sarr; Detroit Pistons: Daniss Jenkins, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 231.29 points, implying an up-tempo affair with plenty of scoring chances. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -9.62, which indicates the away side is favored by roughly 9.6 points.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.3 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Detroit Pistons) -9.6 Most likely outcome: -10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Washington’s power rating has fallen noticeably over five games (down 15.8), while Detroit’s rating is essentially stable (down 0.9).

Washington Wizards

1307.0 -15.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Detroit Pistons 1307.0 -2.8
2026-03-16 Golden State Warriors 1309.8 -6.8
2026-03-14 Boston Celtics 1316.6 -2.7
2026-03-12 Orlando Magic 1319.3 -3.5
2026-03-10 Miami Heat 1322.8 —

Detroit Pistons

1629.1 -0.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Washington Wizards 1629.1 +2.8
2026-03-15 Toronto Raptors 1626.3 -13.4
2026-03-13 Memphis Grizzlies 1639.7 +3.1
2026-03-12 Philadelphia 76ers 1636.6 +6.6
2026-03-10 Brooklyn Nets 1630.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Washington Wizards

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 117 130 -13
Golden State Warriors 117 125 -8
Boston Celtics 100 111 -11
Orlando Magic 131 136 -5
Miami Heat 129 150 -21

Detroit Pistons

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 130 117 +13
Toronto Raptors 108 119 -11
Memphis Grizzlies 126 110 +16
Philadelphia 76ers 131 109 +22
Brooklyn Nets 138 100 +38

Game Analysis

Washington arrives on a three-game losing streak (losses to Detroit, Golden State and Boston), struggling to stop opponents in each outing. Their starting five combines modest offensive output (average points made 11.30) with a high average defensive rating (121.90), a sign they’re giving up too many points even when they can produce on offense. Alex Sarr is the main scoring option for the Wizards, but the group’s collective defensive numbers are a concern. Detroit has won two of their last three, including a recent 130-117 win over Washington, and their projected starters boast stronger profiles: an average offensive rating of 117.68 and a much better average defensive rating of 110.58, plus a slightly higher average points made (12.34). Jalen Duren’s 131.7 offensive rating and 19.0 points made, paired with Duncan Robinson’s 125.2 offensive rating, give Detroit clear inside-out scoring balance that matches up well against Washington’s weaknesses.

Final Prediction

Detroit’s edge comes from superior offensive and defensive numbers among the projected starters and better recent form. Watch how Detroit’s interior scoring and team defense vs. Washington’s struggling defensive group determines whether this projected high-scoring game turns into a comfortable Pistons win.

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