NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
30.7%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
69.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cedric Coward
OR
114.8
DR
117.0
PTS
13.4
VS
Derrick White
OR
118.6
DR
112.3
PTS
17.4
SG
Jaylen Wells
OR
112.4
DR
119.4
PTS
12.8
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.5
DR
113.4
PTS
28.5
SF
Ty Jerome
OR
127.8
DR
124.2
PTS
20.2
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
111.2
DR
107.3
PTS
20.7
PF
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
109.8
DR
118.0
PTS
8.7
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
116.3
DR
115.4
PTS
9.2
C
Taylor Hendricks
OR
108.4
DR
118.9
PTS
11.3
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
134.8
DR
108.1
PTS
9.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the Boston Celtics to win this one with a 69.3% probability. Expected starting five — Memphis Grizzlies: Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Taylor Hendricks. Expected starting five — Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 234.33 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a decent pace on both ends. The expected spread is Home - Away = -8.03, which implies about an 8-point advantage to the away team (Boston) and suggests the Celtics should control this matchup by a comfortable margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.3 Most likely outcome: 234 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Boston Celtics) -8.0 Most likely outcome: -9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis has been drifting downward over the last five games while Boston’s rating has been climbing.

Memphis Grizzlies

1363.1 -10.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Denver Nuggets 1363.1 +14.3
2026-03-16 Chicago Bulls 1348.8 -9.9
2026-03-13 Detroit Pistons 1358.7 -3.1
2026-03-12 Dallas Mavericks 1361.8 -11.3
2026-03-10 Philadelphia 76ers 1373.1 —

Boston Celtics

1631.0 +8.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-18 Golden State Warriors 1631.0 +5.7
2026-03-16 Phoenix Suns 1625.3 +7.7
2026-03-14 Washington Wizards 1617.6 +2.6
2026-03-12 Oklahoma City Thunder 1615.0 -7.5
2026-03-10 San Antonio Spurs 1622.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 125 118 +7
Chicago Bulls 107 132 -25
Detroit Pistons 110 126 -16
Dallas Mavericks 112 120 -8
Philadelphia 76ers 129 139 -10

Boston Celtics

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 120 99 +21
Phoenix Suns 120 112 +8
Washington Wizards 111 100 +11
Oklahoma City Thunder 102 104 -2
San Antonio Spurs 116 125 -9

Game Analysis

Memphis is 1-2 over the last three games with a quality 125-118 win over Denver but two heavy losses (107-132 to Chicago and 110-126 to Detroit), a sign of inconsistency. Boston enters on a three-game winning streak — 120-99 over Golden State, 120-112 over Phoenix, and 111-100 over Washington — showing both offensive balance and the ability to hold teams under 100–112 points in two of those wins. Looking at the expected starting units, Memphis’s five average offensive rating is 114.64, defensive rating 119.50, and average points made 13.28; Boston’s five average offensive rating is 119.08, defensive rating 111.30, and average points made 17.14. Those numbers favor Boston on both offense and defense, with Boston’s starters combining to score more and defend better than Memphis’s projected starters. That gap helps explain the spread.

Final Prediction

Boston’s combination of rising form and a stronger starting-five profile gives them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Memphis can slow Boston’s scoring from their projected starters, especially limiting Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum’s production.

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