NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
97.0%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
3.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
120.9
DR
116.1
PTS
26.2
VS
Bub Carrington
OR
106.3
DR
124.6
PTS
10.1
SG
Josh Hart
OR
120.8
DR
110.2
PTS
12.1
VS
Jaden Hardy
OR
101.3
DR
130.0
PTS
11.9
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.7
DR
112.8
PTS
14.7
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
108.9
DR
119.7
PTS
11.2
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
116.9
DR
111.7
PTS
16.8
VS
Will Riley
OR
105.4
DR
124.6
PTS
8.9
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
121.4
DR
109.3
PTS
20.1
VS
Tristan Vukcevic
OR
92.3
DR
122.0
PTS
8.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The New York Knicks are the pick to win (97.0% probability). Expected starting fives — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns; Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Jaden Hardy, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Tristan Vukcevic.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 229.93 points, suggesting a legitimately high-scoring contest that could come from quick possessions and efficient shooting. The expected spread is 17.5 (home − away), giving a 17.5-point edge to the home side and aligning with the Knicks being overwhelming favorites.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.9 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Washington Wizards) 17.5 Most likely outcome: 18 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New York’s power rating is rising (up 14.5 over five games) while Washington’s is falling (down 14.8).

New York Knicks

1612.6 +14.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-20 Brooklyn Nets 1612.6 +3.0
2026-03-17 Indiana Pacers 1609.6 +2.8
2026-03-15 Golden State Warriors 1606.8 +5.4
2026-03-13 Indiana Pacers 1601.4 +3.3
2026-03-11 Utah Jazz 1598.1 —

Washington Wizards

1301.8 -14.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-21 Oklahoma City Thunder 1301.8 -2.1
2026-03-19 Detroit Pistons 1303.9 -3.1
2026-03-17 Detroit Pistons 1307.0 -2.8
2026-03-16 Golden State Warriors 1309.8 -6.8
2026-03-14 Boston Celtics 1316.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 93 92 +1
Indiana Pacers 136 110 +26
Golden State Warriors 110 107 +3
Indiana Pacers 101 92 +9
Utah Jazz 134 117 +17

Washington Wizards

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 111 132 -21
Detroit Pistons 95 117 -22
Detroit Pistons 117 130 -13
Golden State Warriors 117 125 -8
Boston Celtics 100 111 -11

Game Analysis

New York arrives on a three-game winning streak (wins: 93-92, 136-110, 110-107) showing both the ability to grind out close games and to blow teams out. Their recent results reflect growing momentum and consistency on both ends. Washington, meanwhile, is struggling through three straight losses (111-132, 95-117, 117-130) and has given up large totals, indicating defensive breakdowns and limited offensive answers. Looking at the expected starters, New York’s five average an offensive rating of 120.94, a defensive rating of 112.02, and an average 17.98 points made per starter — a balanced, high-end group. Washington’s projected five average an offensive rating of 102.84, a defensive rating of 124.18, and an average 10.14 points made per starter — considerably weaker on both ends. Those gaps in efficiency and scoring depth help explain the projected margin.

Final Prediction

The Knicks’ upward trajectory, superior offensive and defensive numbers, and deeper scoring from the starters give them a clear edge. Watch whether New York can force turnovers and keep Washington’s already-low starter scoring in check — that will likely decide the margin.

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