NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Los Angeles Clippers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
22.7%
VS
Los Angeles Clippers
Away Team
77.3%
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Set it upStarting Five Matchup
PG
Andrew Nembhard
OR
114.6
DR
122.8
PTS
17.1
VS
Darius Garland
OR
124.4
DR
119.9
PTS
21.1
SG
Aaron Nesmith
OR
105.6
DR
121.9
PTS
13.5
VS
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
124.6
DR
118.1
PTS
10.8
SF
Jarace Walker
OR
102.5
DR
118.9
PTS
11.6
VS
Kawhi Leonard
OR
124.9
DR
112.3
PTS
28.3
PF
Pascal Siakam
OR
111.0
DR
118.3
PTS
23.9
VS
John Collins
OR
120.0
DR
117.1
PTS
13.5
C
Jay Huff
OR
111.3
DR
116.3
PTS
9.5
VS
Brook Lopez
OR
98.4
DR
115.3
PTS
7.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The Los Angeles Clippers are the pick, 77.3% probability to win.
Expected starting fives — Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff. Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Brook Lopez.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 236.28 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo pace on both ends. The expected spread is -9.49 (home - away), giving the Clippers roughly a 9.5-point edge at home.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
236.3
Most likely outcome: 236 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Los Angeles Clippers)
-9.5
Most likely outcome: -10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
The Clippers show clear upward momentum (+13.9 over five games) while the Pacers have a modest rise (+4.3).
Indiana Pacers
1300.3
+4.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1300.3 | -3.0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Orlando Magic | 1303.3 | +13.9 |
| 2026-03-21 | San Antonio Spurs | 1289.4 | -1.4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1290.8 | -5.2 |
| 2026-03-17 | New York Knicks | 1296.0 | — |
Los Angeles Clippers
1546.6
+13.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | Toronto Raptors | 1546.6 | +11.0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1535.6 | +8.1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Dallas Mavericks | 1527.5 | +6.6 |
| 2026-03-19 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1520.9 | -11.8 |
| 2026-03-18 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1532.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Indiana Pacers
1-4 in last 5
L
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 130 | 137 | -7 | |
| Orlando Magic | 128 | 126 | +2 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 119 | 134 | -15 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 119 | 127 | -8 | |
| New York Knicks | 110 | 136 | -26 |
Los Angeles Clippers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 119 | 94 | +25 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 129 | 96 | +33 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 138 | 131 | +7 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 99 | 105 | -6 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 109 | 124 | -15 |
Game Analysis
Indiana is 1-2 over its last three games, with a narrow 128-126 win over Orlando sandwiched between a 130-137 loss to the Lakers and a 119-134 loss to San Antonio — evidence of defensive lapses and inconsistent results. Pascal Siakam is the primary scorer at 23.9 points, but the unit’s combined defensive rating is a concern.
Los Angeles arrives 3-0, with dominant wins 119-94, 129-96 and 138-131, showing both offensive firepower and recent consistency. Kawhi Leonard leads the group at 28.3 points, and the Clippers’ starters average a higher offensive rating and a slightly better defensive rating than the Pacers.
Looking at the starting fives: Indiana’s five average an offensive rating of 109.00, defensive rating of 119.64, and 15.12 points made; the Clippers’ five average an offensive rating of 118.46, defensive rating of 116.54, and 16.32 points made — a clear offensive advantage for L.A.
Final Prediction
The Clippers’ hotter form, superior starting-five offense (118.46 vs. 109.00) and the home spread give them the edge. Key factor to watch: whether Indiana can slow Kawhi and the Clippers’ scoring engine enough to overcome the ~9.5-point gap.
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