NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Toronto Raptors

Home Team
59.4%
VS

New Orleans Pelicans

Away Team
40.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Shead
OR
112.6
DR
115.7
PTS
6.5
VS
Jeremiah Fears
OR
100.4
DR
119.1
PTS
13.1
SG
Brandon Ingram
OR
108.9
DR
115.0
PTS
21.5
VS
Herbert Jones
OR
104.8
DR
117.0
PTS
9.2
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
114.9
DR
115.2
PTS
18.9
VS
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.0
DR
120.7
PTS
17.4
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
115.0
DR
110.5
PTS
18.5
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
125.9
DR
118.3
PTS
21.4
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
126.5
DR
110.9
PTS
10.4
VS
DeAndre Jordan
OR
130.4
DR
113.5
PTS
4.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the Toronto Raptors to win (59.4% probability). Expected starting fives — Toronto Raptors: Jamal Shead, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl; New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Zion Williamson, DeAndre Jordan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 228.59 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and an above-average pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 5.01, giving the home side roughly a five-point advantage — a cushion that aligns with Toronto being the pick.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 228.6 Most likely outcome: 228 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - New Orleans Pelicans) 5.0 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are sliding over the last five games, with Toronto down 26.3 and New Orleans down 5.1.

Toronto Raptors

1516.1 -26.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Los Angeles Clippers 1516.1 -11.0
2026-03-23 Utah Jazz 1527.1 +6.0
2026-03-22 Phoenix Suns 1521.1 -12.1
2026-03-20 Denver Nuggets 1533.2 -9.2
2026-03-18 Chicago Bulls 1542.4 —

New Orleans Pelicans

1444.0 -5.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-26 Detroit Pistons 1444.0 -5.3
2026-03-24 New York Knicks 1449.3 -5.1
2026-03-21 Cleveland Cavaliers 1454.4 -6.5
2026-03-19 Los Angeles Clippers 1460.9 +11.8
2026-03-18 Los Angeles Clippers 1449.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Toronto Raptors

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 94 119 -25
Utah Jazz 143 127 +16
Phoenix Suns 98 120 -22
Denver Nuggets 115 121 -6
Chicago Bulls 139 109 +30

New Orleans Pelicans

2-3 in last 5
L L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 108 129 -21
New York Knicks 116 121 -5
Cleveland Cavaliers 106 111 -5
Los Angeles Clippers 105 99 +6
Los Angeles Clippers 124 109 +15

Game Analysis

Toronto is 1-2 over its last three games (loss to the Clippers 94-119, win over the Jazz 143-127, loss to the Suns 98-120), showing offensive upside but defensive lapses in the losses. New Orleans enters on a three-game skid (losses 108-129, 116-121, 106-111) and has struggled to close out games or slow opponents consistently. Looking at the projected starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating of 115.58, defensive rating of 113.46, and average points made per starter of 15.16. New Orleans’ five average an offensive rating of 116.50, defensive rating of 117.72, and average points made per starter of 13.04. Toronto’s group combines a stronger team defensive profile and more scoring balance among starters, while New Orleans leans on high-end individual offense from players like Zion and Saddiq.

Final Prediction

Toronto’s edge comes from more balanced scoring among starters and a noticeably better group defensive rating, plus the home-side spread. Key factor to watch: how Jakob Poeltl and Toronto’s frontcourt handle Zion Williamson and New Orleans’ interior offense, as that matchup will shape the flow.

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