NBA 2025-2026: Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Golden State Warriors

Home Team
35.0%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
65.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Golden State Warriors
PTS 8.9 REB 3.3 AST 4.2 3PM 1.4
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PTS 15.8 REB 5.4 AST 3.7 3PM 2.4
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PTS 5.9 REB 3.2 AST 1.6 3PM 1.8
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PTS 9.8 REB 5.8 AST 5.2 3PM 1.9
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PTS 12.5 REB 5.3 AST 2.8 3PM 1.7
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 17.3 REB 3.0 AST 5.9 3PM 1.7
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PTS 18.5 REB 5.1 AST 7.2 3PM 1.2
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PTS 13.0 REB 3.6 AST 2.3 3PM 2.4
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PTS 11.0 REB 4.9 AST 1.6 3PM 2.4
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PTS 24.6 REB 10.8 AST 3.1 3PM 1.5
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Pat Spencer
OR
96.9
DR
117.0
PTS
6.9
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.4
DR
112.8
PTS
18.6
SG
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.6
DR
115.3
PTS
13.3
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
116.7
DR
111.2
PTS
16.6
SF
Will Richard
OR
114.6
DR
115.1
PTS
6.9
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
117.9
DR
113.6
PTS
14.1
PF
Draymond Green
OR
102.4
DR
114.4
PTS
8.6
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.4
DR
111.5
PTS
11.1
C
Gui Santos
OR
115.8
DR
114.3
PTS
8.9
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
119.5
DR
99.0
PTS
24.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

I like the San Antonio Spurs to win — probability 65.0%. Expected starting five — Golden State Warriors: Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, Draymond Green, Gui Santos. San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 225.35 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with both offenses capable of scoring in transition and in halfcourt sets. The expected spread is Home - Away = -9.36, meaning the road team (Spurs) is about a 9.4-point favorite and should hold a clear advantage pre-tip.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.3 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - San Antonio Spurs) -9.4 Most likely outcome: -10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams have rising momentum: Golden State’s power rating climbed from 1446.7 to 1458.1 (+11.4) while San Antonio rose from 1702.8 to 1717.9 (+15.1).

Golden State Warriors

1458.1 +11.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Denver Nuggets 1458.1 -7.1
2026-03-27 Washington Wizards 1465.2 +5.3
2026-03-25 Brooklyn Nets 1459.9 +5.0
2026-03-23 Dallas Mavericks 1454.9 +8.2
2026-03-21 Atlanta Hawks 1446.7 —

San Antonio Spurs

1717.9 +15.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-30 Chicago Bulls 1717.9 +2.3
2026-03-28 Milwaukee Bucks 1715.6 +3.7
2026-03-25 Memphis Grizzlies 1711.9 +2.6
2026-03-23 Miami Heat 1709.3 +6.5
2026-03-21 Indiana Pacers 1702.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Golden State Warriors

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 93 116 -23
Washington Wizards 131 126 +5
Brooklyn Nets 109 106 +3
Dallas Mavericks 137 131 +6
Atlanta Hawks 110 126 -16

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 129 114 +15
Milwaukee Bucks 127 95 +32
Memphis Grizzlies 123 98 +25
Miami Heat 136 111 +25
Indiana Pacers 134 119 +15

Game Analysis

Golden State is 2-1 over the last three, with a heavy loss to Denver (93-116) but solid wins over Washington (131-126) and Brooklyn (109-106). The wins show they can score in bunches, but the Denver loss exposed defensive inconsistencies. San Antonio arrives on a three-game roll, beating Chicago 129-114, Milwaukee 127-95, and Memphis 123-98 — dominant margins that indicate both offensive firepower and stifling defense recently. Looking at the expected fives, Golden State’s starters average an offensive rating of 108.86 and defensive rating of 115.22 with an average 8.9 points made per player, reflecting a balanced but modest scoring group. San Antonio’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.18 and defensive rating of 109.62 with an average 17.0 points made per player; Victor Wembanyama (OFF 119.5, DEF 99.0, 24.5 PPG) is a major differential on both ends.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s higher offensive efficiency, stronger defensive numbers, and recent convincing wins give them the edge. Watch how Golden State handles Wembanyama and whether the Warriors can slow the Spurs’ ball movement — that matchup will decide the game.

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