NBA 2025-2026: Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Utah Jazz

Home Team
12.1%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
87.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Utah Jazz
PTS 16.2 REB 3.5 AST 6.9 3PM 1.6
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.7 REB 4.1 AST 3.3 3PM 0.9
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PTS 17.0 REB 5.1 AST 2.7 3PM 2.4
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PTS 18.1 REB 4.5 AST 3.2 3PM 2.6
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PTS 15.7 REB 8.8 AST 3.8 3PM 1.7
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AWAY Denver Nuggets
PTS 25.4 REB 4.2 AST 7.4 3PM 3.6
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PTS 12.1 REB 4.2 AST 3.1 3PM 1.4
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PTS 17.1 REB 5.9 AST 3.5 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 11.6 REB 3.7 AST 2.5 3PM 2.6
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PTS 26.5 REB 13.0 AST 10.6 3PM 1.8
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Kennedy Chandler
OR
109.3
DR
128.8
PTS
14.2
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
124.6
DR
119.8
PTS
25.5
SG
Cody Williams
OR
98.8
DR
124.3
PTS
8.1
VS
Christian Braun
OR
123.3
DR
117.9
PTS
11.6
SF
Ace Bailey
OR
106.3
DR
122.9
PTS
13.5
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.3
DR
115.4
PTS
16.6
PF
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.9
DR
124.9
PTS
14.3
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
123.0
DR
118.6
PTS
11.8
C
Kyle Filipowski
OR
114.0
DR
118.5
PTS
11.1
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.2
DR
112.4
PTS
27.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets are the pick to win (87.9% probability). Expected starting fives — Utah Jazz: Kennedy Chandler, Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski. Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 246.02 points, signaling a fast, high-scoring game environment rather than a defensive slog. The expected spread is -15.12 (Home - Away), which translates to roughly a 15.12-point edge for the away team — in this case favoring Denver heavily.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 246.0 Most likely outcome: 246 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - Denver Nuggets) -15.1 Most likely outcome: -16 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Utah's power rating has slid from 1332.8 to 1308.4 (down 24.4) while Denver's has climbed from 1568.9 to 1592.2 (up 23.3), so Utah is falling as Denver is rising.

Utah Jazz

1308.4 -24.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-30 Cleveland Cavaliers 1308.4 -3.3
2026-03-28 Phoenix Suns 1311.7 -4.5
2026-03-27 Denver Nuggets 1316.2 -2.9
2026-03-25 Washington Wizards 1319.1 -13.7
2026-03-23 Toronto Raptors 1332.8 —

Denver Nuggets

1592.2 +23.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Golden State Warriors 1592.2 +7.1
2026-03-27 Utah Jazz 1585.1 +2.9
2026-03-25 Dallas Mavericks 1582.2 +3.9
2026-03-24 Phoenix Suns 1578.3 +9.4
2026-03-22 Portland Trail Blazers 1568.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Utah Jazz

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 113 122 -9
Phoenix Suns 109 134 -25
Denver Nuggets 129 135 -6
Washington Wizards 110 133 -23
Toronto Raptors 127 143 -16

Denver Nuggets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 116 93 +23
Utah Jazz 135 129 +6
Dallas Mavericks 142 135 +7
Phoenix Suns 125 123 +2
Portland Trail Blazers 128 112 +16

Game Analysis

Utah arrives on a three-game losing streak (losses to Denver 129-135, Phoenix 109-134, Cleveland 113-122), showing offensive inconsistency and defensive lapses against high-end scoring teams. Denver is on a three-game winning run (wins over Golden State 116-93, Utah 135-129, Dallas 142-135), carrying momentum and confidence after putting up big offensive outputs recently. The head-to-head from March 27 suggests the Nuggets can outscore Utah even when both teams are firing. Looking at expected starter profiles, Utah’s five average offensive rating is 107.06, defensive rating 123.88, and average points made per starter 12.24 — a group that struggles defensively and doesn’t produce elite scoring. Denver’s starters average offensive rating 125.48, defensive rating 116.82, and average points made 18.68 — led by Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, that combination creates a sizable two-way advantage running the offense and limiting easy looks.

Final Prediction

Denver’s rising form, superior starter efficiency (offense 125.48 vs 107.06) and higher scoring floor explain the large edge. Key factor to watch: can Utah slow Jokić and Murray enough to force a lower-scoring game, or will Denver turn this into another high-scoring blowout?

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