NBA 2025-2026: Washington Wizards vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Washington Wizards
Home Team
29.3%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
70.7%
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HOME Washington Wizards
Bub Carrington
PTS
12.7
REB
3.3
AST
5.4
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
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Tre Johnson
PTS
14.4
REB
3.6
AST
2.2
3PM
2.3
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Bilal Coulibaly
PTS
14.9
REB
5.2
AST
2.9
3PM
1.7
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Will Riley
PTS
14.6
REB
4.2
AST
2.9
3PM
1.8
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Tristan Vukcevic
PTS
12.6
REB
4.6
AST
1.7
3PM
1.8
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
27.1
REB
4.9
AST
6.7
3PM
3.4
Distribution (PDF)
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VJ Edgecombe
PTS
17.6
REB
5.1
AST
4.2
3PM
2.5
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Dominick Barlow
PTS
8.1
REB
5.1
AST
1.6
3PM
0.1
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Paul George
PTS
20.2
REB
5.7
AST
3.5
3PM
3.4
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Adem Bona
PTS
6.7
REB
5.8
AST
1.0
3PM
0.0
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Bub Carrington
OR
106.6
DR
124.8
PTS
10.2
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
121.1
DR
115.3
PTS
28.8
SG
Tre Johnson
OR
103.8
DR
123.9
PTS
12.3
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.8
DR
116.5
PTS
16.0
SF
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
107.3
DR
119.7
PTS
11.3
VS
Dominick Barlow
OR
125.5
DR
116.2
PTS
7.9
PF
Will Riley
OR
106.8
DR
124.6
PTS
9.5
VS
Paul George
OR
112.0
DR
112.3
PTS
16.8
C
Tristan Vukcevic
OR
94.6
DR
122.1
PTS
8.8
VS
Adem Bona
OR
120.4
DR
114.3
PTS
4.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Philadelphia 76ers are the pick to win (70.7% probability).
Expected starting five — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Tristan Vukcevic. Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Paul George, Adem Bona.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game is expected to be relatively high-scoring with a projected combined total of 233.74 points, implying an up-tempo affair or porous defense on one side. The expected spread is -10.07 (home - away), giving the 76ers roughly a 10-point edge at home.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
233.7
Most likely outcome: 233 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Philadelphia 76ers)
-10.1
Most likely outcome: -11 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Washington’s power rating is effectively flat over the last five games, while Philadelphia’s has shown a modest uptick.
Washington Wizards
1299.2
+0.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1299.2 | -2.5 |
| 2026-03-29 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1301.7 | -5.6 |
| 2026-03-27 | Golden State Warriors | 1307.3 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-25 | Utah Jazz | 1312.6 | +13.7 |
| 2026-03-22 | New York Knicks | 1298.9 | — |
Philadelphia 76ers
1516.9
+2.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Miami Heat | 1516.9 | -10.8 |
| 2026-03-28 | Charlotte Hornets | 1527.7 | +12.2 |
| 2026-03-25 | Chicago Bulls | 1515.5 | +7.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1508.1 | -6.2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Utah Jazz | 1514.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Washington Wizards
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 101 | 120 | -19 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 88 | 123 | -35 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 126 | 131 | -5 | |
| Utah Jazz | 133 | 110 | +23 | |
| New York Knicks | 113 | 145 | -32 |
Philadelphia 76ers
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 109 | 119 | -10 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 118 | 114 | +4 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 157 | 137 | +20 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 103 | 123 | -20 | |
| Utah Jazz | 126 | 116 | +10 |
Game Analysis
Washington comes in on a three-game losing streak (101-120 vs Lakers, 88-123 vs Trail Blazers, 126-131 vs Warriors). They’ve produced an inconsistent offense and have surrendered 120+ twice in that span, signaling defensive trouble. The Wizards’ expected starters combine for an average offensive rating of 103.82, defensive rating of 123.02, and average points made of 10.22 — a group that struggles to generate elite efficiency or stop high-octane attacks.
Philadelphia is 2-1 in its last three (loss to Miami 109-119, wins 118-114 and 157-137), showing the ability to score in bunches. The 76ers’ projected five average an offensive rating of 118.56, defensive rating of 114.92, and average points made of 14.86, a clear advantage in both scoring and efficiency. Tyrese Maxey (28.8 ppg, offensive rating 121.1) and the collective firepower make Philadelphia a heavy favorite.
Final Prediction
Philadelphia’s superior offensive and defensive profiles and recent positive momentum give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Washington can contain Maxey and force the 76ers into a lower-efficiency game — that matchup will likely decide the outcome.
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