NBA 2025-2026: Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Golden State Warriors

Home Team
50.9%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
49.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Golden State Warriors
PTS 13.8 REB 4.3 AST 4.0 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.1 REB 5.6 AST 4.7 3PM 2.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.2 REB 5.3 AST 5.4 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.7 REB 5.1 AST 3.2 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.4 REB 5.6 AST 2.9 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 20.3 REB 4.7 AST 7.4 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.9 REB 4.3 AST 5.5 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.0 REB 3.3 AST 2.7 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.1 REB 8.7 AST 3.7 3PM 0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.7 REB 8.0 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Anthony Melton
OR
96.5
DR
113.3
PTS
12.7
VS
James Harden
OR
126.1
DR
118.3
PTS
20.3
SG
Brandin Podziemski
OR
115.0
DR
115.3
PTS
13.3
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
120.7
DR
115.8
PTS
27.7
SF
Draymond Green
OR
103.4
DR
114.5
PTS
8.7
VS
Sam Merrill
OR
126.1
DR
119.0
PTS
12.9
PF
Gui Santos
OR
115.8
DR
114.3
PTS
8.9
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
119.5
DR
112.0
PTS
18.2
C
Kristaps Porziņģis
OR
113.3
DR
117.3
PTS
17.6
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
130.3
DR
111.8
PTS
15.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The Golden State Warriors are the projected winner with a 50.9% probability. Expected starting five — Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porziņģis. Expected starting five — Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The models expect a combined 234.46 points, pointing to a relatively high-scoring game and an uptempo feel. The projected spread (Home - Away) is -5.29, which implies a 5.29-point advantage to the away team. Note that two separate prediction methods are shown here—one produces the win probability and another projects the point spread—so they can point in different directions and both are presented for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.5 Most likely outcome: 234 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - Cleveland Cavaliers) -5.3 Most likely outcome: -6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Golden State’s rating is essentially flat with a slight dip (1454.9 → 1453.9) while Cleveland’s has fallen more noticeably (1607.2 → 1594.8).

Golden State Warriors

1453.9 -1.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 San Antonio Spurs 1453.9 -4.2
2026-03-29 Denver Nuggets 1458.1 -7.1
2026-03-27 Washington Wizards 1465.2 +5.3
2026-03-25 Brooklyn Nets 1459.9 +5.0
2026-03-23 Dallas Mavericks 1454.9 —

Cleveland Cavaliers

1594.8 -12.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-31 Los Angeles Lakers 1594.8 -10.0
2026-03-30 Utah Jazz 1604.8 +3.2
2026-03-27 Miami Heat 1601.6 +8.7
2026-03-25 Miami Heat 1592.9 -14.3
2026-03-24 Orlando Magic 1607.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Golden State Warriors

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 113 127 -14
Denver Nuggets 93 116 -23
Washington Wizards 131 126 +5
Brooklyn Nets 109 106 +3
Dallas Mavericks 137 131 +6

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 113 127 -14
Utah Jazz 122 113 +9
Miami Heat 149 128 +21
Miami Heat 103 120 -17
Orlando Magic 136 131 +5

Game Analysis

Golden State is 1-2 in its last three (losses to San Antonio 113-127 and Denver 93-116, win over Washington 131-126), showing they can score in bursts but have struggled defensively recently. Cleveland is 2-1 (loss to L.A. Lakers 113-127, wins over Utah 122-113 and Miami 149-128) and comes in with big offensive outputs, including that 149-point night against Miami. Looking at the projected starters, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 124.54, defensive rating of 115.38, and 18.9 points made per starter — a clear scoring edge. Golden State’s projected five average an offensive rating of 108.80, defensive rating of 114.94, and 12.24 points made per starter, indicating a modest defensive edge but less firepower offensively.

Final Prediction

Golden State gets the nod because the win-probability view favors them narrowly despite Cleveland’s superior offensive numbers; the Warriors’ slightly better team defense and role scoring balance are the marginal advantages. Key factor to watch: whether the Warriors can contain Cleveland’s high offensive efficiency (124.54) or if the Cavs’ scorers force the pace and tilt the game toward the spread.

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