NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Philadelphia 76ers
Home Team
23.6%
VS
Detroit Pistons
Away Team
76.4%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
26.1
REB
4.3
AST
6.7
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
VJ Edgecombe
PTS
15.3
REB
4.1
AST
4.4
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dominick Barlow
PTS
7.4
REB
4.5
AST
1.5
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Paul George
PTS
20.6
REB
5.3
AST
4.3
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Adem Bona
PTS
5.5
REB
4.7
AST
0.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Detroit Pistons
Daniss Jenkins
PTS
14.7
REB
3.1
AST
5.5
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
10.8
REB
6.0
AST
3.5
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
12.6
REB
2.6
AST
1.8
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
13.3
REB
4.4
AST
3.0
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
20.0
REB
10.9
AST
2.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Tyrese Maxey
OR
121.5
DR
115.4
PTS
28.7
VS
Daniss Jenkins
OR
103.4
DR
111.3
PTS
9.3
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.8
DR
116.5
PTS
16.0
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
112.7
DR
104.6
PTS
9.9
SF
Dominick Barlow
OR
126.3
DR
116.2
PTS
7.9
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.6
DR
115.1
PTS
12.1
PF
Paul George
OR
113.5
DR
112.0
PTS
17.7
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
119.9
DR
111.5
PTS
13.1
C
Adem Bona
OR
121.2
DR
114.3
PTS
4.9
VS
Jalen Duren
OR
132.2
DR
107.8
PTS
19.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons are projected to win (Probability: 76.4%).
Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Paul George, Adem Bona. Detroit Pistons: Daniss Jenkins, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 229.68 points, suggesting a fairly up-tempo game with both offenses capable of putting up points. The expected spread is -0.86 (Home - Away), a tiny edge toward the visiting Pistons that effectively makes Detroit a hair-favorite on the road.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
229.7
Most likely outcome: 229 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Detroit Pistons)
-0.9
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show rising momentum in their elo trends over the last five games.
Philadelphia 76ers
1534.0
+18.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1534.0 | +11.7 |
| 2026-04-01 | Washington Wizards | 1522.3 | +5.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Miami Heat | 1516.9 | -10.8 |
| 2026-03-28 | Charlotte Hornets | 1527.7 | +12.2 |
| 2026-03-25 | Chicago Bulls | 1515.5 | — |
Detroit Pistons
1656.4
+17.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1656.4 | +7.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | Toronto Raptors | 1648.8 | +7.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1641.8 | -8.1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1649.9 | +10.9 |
| 2026-03-26 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1639.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Philadelphia 76ers
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 115 | 103 | +12 | |
| Washington Wizards | 153 | 131 | +22 | |
| Miami Heat | 109 | 119 | -10 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 118 | 114 | +4 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 157 | 137 | +20 |
Detroit Pistons
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 113 | 108 | +5 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 127 | 116 | +11 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 110 | 114 | -4 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 109 | 87 | +22 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 129 | 108 | +21 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs enter this matchup 2-1 over their last three games. Philadelphia has wins over Minnesota (115-103) and Washington (153-131) and a loss to Miami (109-119), showing bursts of offensive firepower but a recent lapse against a strong Heat defense. Detroit has wins over Minnesota (113-108) and Toronto (127-116) and a tight loss to OKC (110-114), trending upward and playing consistent two-way basketball.
Looking at the starting units, Philadelphia’s five average an offensive rating of 119.26, a defensive rating of 114.88, and combine for 15.04 points per starter on average. Detroit’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.76, a stronger defensive rating of 110.06, and 12.78 average points made per starter. The edge in team defense and Jalen Duren’s elite offensive rating (132.2) and 19.5 scoring average tilt the matchup toward Detroit.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s defensive profile and steady momentum give them the edge despite similar offensive footprints. Watch the interior battle — Jalen Duren versus the 76ers’ frontcourt — as the decisive matchup.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel