NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
80.1%
VS
Indiana Pacers
Away Team
19.9%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
20.7
REB
4.8
AST
8.0
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
26.1
REB
4.7
AST
6.0
3PM
3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Keon Ellis
PTS
10.6
REB
3.7
AST
2.1
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Max Strus
PTS
15.4
REB
5.8
AST
2.2
3PM
3.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Thomas Bryant
PTS
10.1
REB
5.7
AST
1.3
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Indiana Pacers
Quenton Jackson
PTS
10.1
REB
3.6
AST
3.4
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ben Sheppard
PTS
8.2
REB
3.8
AST
1.9
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jarace Walker
PTS
11.6
REB
4.9
AST
2.7
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Obi Toppin
PTS
12.0
REB
5.1
AST
2.6
3PM
1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jay Huff
PTS
10.8
REB
5.0
AST
1.5
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
James Harden
OR
125.9
DR
118.3
PTS
20.2
VS
Quenton Jackson
OR
108.6
DR
122.0
PTS
8.5
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
120.6
DR
115.7
PTS
27.7
VS
Ben Sheppard
OR
116.7
DR
121.2
PTS
7.1
SF
Keon Ellis
OR
127.1
DR
113.4
PTS
8.1
VS
Jarace Walker
OR
103.3
DR
118.9
PTS
11.5
PF
Max Strus
OR
123.4
DR
122.0
PTS
13.8
VS
Obi Toppin
OR
112.4
DR
122.2
PTS
10.0
C
Thomas Bryant
OR
114.4
DR
115.5
PTS
6.0
VS
Jay Huff
OR
110.9
DR
116.3
PTS
9.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers are favored to win (80.1% probability).
Expected starting fives — Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Keon Ellis, Max Strus, Thomas Bryant. Indiana Pacers: Quenton Jackson, Ben Sheppard, Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin, Jay Huff.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 236.67 points, pointing to an up-tempo affair with plenty of scoring opportunities. The expected spread is 13.38 (Home - Away), which gives a large edge to the home side — and aligns with Cleveland being the clear favorite.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
236.7
Most likely outcome: 236 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Indiana Pacers)
13.4
Most likely outcome: 13 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show rising momentum over the last five games, with Cleveland up +8.4 and Indiana up +22.7.
Cleveland Cavaliers
1601.3
+8.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Golden State Warriors | 1601.3 | +6.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1594.8 | -10.0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Utah Jazz | 1604.8 | +3.2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Miami Heat | 1601.6 | +8.7 |
| 2026-03-25 | Miami Heat | 1592.9 | — |
Indiana Pacers
1323.0
+22.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Charlotte Hornets | 1323.0 | -3.5 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chicago Bulls | 1326.5 | +13.8 |
| 2026-03-29 | Miami Heat | 1312.7 | +16.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1296.7 | -3.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1300.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-2 in last 5
W
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 118 | 111 | +7 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 113 | 127 | -14 | |
| Utah Jazz | 122 | 113 | +9 | |
| Miami Heat | 149 | 128 | +21 | |
| Miami Heat | 103 | 120 | -17 |
Indiana Pacers
2-3 in last 5
L
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 108 | 129 | -21 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 145 | 126 | +19 | |
| Miami Heat | 135 | 118 | +17 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 113 | 114 | -1 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 130 | 137 | -7 |
Game Analysis
Cleveland is 2-1 in their last three, beating Golden State 118-111 and Utah 122-113 while taking a 113-127 loss to the Lakers; those results show they can score in bunches but also be vulnerable. Indiana is also 2-1, but their profile is streaky: a heavy 108-129 loss to Charlotte sandwiched around offensive outbursts of 145-126 vs Chicago and 135-118 vs Miami.
Looking at the expected starters, Cleveland’s five combine for an average offensive rating of 122.28, defensive rating of 116.98, and total 75.8 points made (15.16 per starter on average). Indiana’s projected five average an offensive rating of 110.38, defensive rating of 120.12, and total 46.6 points made (9.32 per starter). That gap — Cleveland’s stronger offense and better defense — is likely the decisive factor if these starters dictate the game.
Final Prediction
Cleveland’s superior offensive profile (122.28) and higher starting-five scoring (75.8 vs 46.6) give them the clear edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Indiana can sustain the recent high-scoring pace or if Cleveland’s defense forces the Pacers into low-efficiency possessions.
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