NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder
Home Team
98.2%
VS
Utah Jazz
Away Team
1.8%
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HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
PTS
31.2
REB
4.5
AST
6.8
3PM
2.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jalen Williams
PTS
18.6
REB
4.5
AST
5.9
3PM
1.0
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Luguentz Dort
PTS
9.3
REB
3.4
AST
1.7
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Chet Holmgren
PTS
16.4
REB
7.8
AST
1.8
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
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Isaiah Hartenstein
PTS
9.4
REB
9.6
AST
3.6
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
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AWAY Utah Jazz
Cody Williams
PTS
12.1
REB
4.3
AST
3.5
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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John Konchar
PTS
6.2
REB
5.5
AST
3.2
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
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Ace Bailey
PTS
14.3
REB
4.8
AST
2.1
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
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Brice Sensabaugh
PTS
16.3
REB
4.5
AST
3.1
3PM
2.3
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Kyle Filipowski
PTS
14.4
REB
8.3
AST
3.3
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.8
DR
108.1
PTS
31.6
VS
Cody Williams
OR
99.3
DR
124.7
PTS
8.5
SG
Jalen Williams
OR
116.1
DR
110.2
PTS
17.1
VS
John Konchar
OR
114.6
DR
118.0
PTS
5.3
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
104.1
DR
111.3
PTS
8.4
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
105.9
DR
123.3
PTS
13.6
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
123.9
DR
103.7
PTS
16.9
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.8
DR
125.1
PTS
14.6
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
122.8
DR
102.8
PTS
9.4
VS
Kyle Filipowski
OR
114.4
DR
118.7
PTS
11.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are projected to win (98.2% probability).
Expected starting five — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein. Utah Jazz: Cody Williams, John Konchar, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected combined total is 236.0 points, indicating a fairly high-scoring affair and a brisk pace on both ends. The expected spread is 19.92 points (home − away), giving a nearly 20-point advantage to the home team, favoring the Thunder by a wide margin.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
236.0
Most likely outcome: 236 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Utah Jazz)
19.9
Most likely outcome: 22 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Oklahoma City’s rating is trending up (1691.4 → 1719.3), while Utah’s is slipping (1316.2 → 1301.5).
Oklahoma City Thunder
1719.3
+27.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1719.3 | +9.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Detroit Pistons | 1709.9 | +8.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | New York Knicks | 1701.8 | +7.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Chicago Bulls | 1694.3 | +2.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | Boston Celtics | 1691.4 | — |
Utah Jazz
1301.5
-14.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Houston Rockets | 1301.5 | -3.6 |
| 2026-04-01 | Denver Nuggets | 1305.1 | -3.3 |
| 2026-03-30 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1308.4 | -3.3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Phoenix Suns | 1311.7 | -4.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Denver Nuggets | 1316.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 139 | 96 | +43 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 114 | 110 | +4 | |
| New York Knicks | 111 | 100 | +11 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 131 | 113 | +18 | |
| Boston Celtics | 109 | 119 | -10 |
Utah Jazz
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 106 | 140 | -34 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 117 | 130 | -13 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 113 | 122 | -9 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 109 | 134 | -25 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 129 | 135 | -6 |
Game Analysis
Oklahoma City enters off a three-game winning streak, beating Los Angeles 139–96, Detroit 114–110 and New York 111–100 — a stretch that pairs heavy scoring nights with consistent defensive holds. Utah is on a three-game skid, dropping 106–140 to Houston, 117–130 to Denver and 113–122 to Cleveland, showing persistent defensive breakdowns and trouble containing opponents’ offense.
Looking at the expected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of 120.54, a defensive rating of 107.22 and average points made of 16.68, reflecting strong two-way balance and a high-volume scorer in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Utah’s projected five average an offensive rating of 108.20, a defensive rating of 121.96 and average points made of 10.66, suggesting the Jazz will struggle to keep pace on offense and have significant defensive liabilities against a potent Thunder attack.
Final Prediction
The Thunder’s recent form, superior team ratings and scoring depth give them a clear edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: can Utah slow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and limit OKC’s transition opportunities — if not, the projected blowout is likely to materialize.
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