NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
33.0%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
67.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Memphis Grizzlies
PTS 10.8 REB 3.7 AST 4.8 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.1 REB 5.3 AST 3.2 3PM 1.9
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 17.5 REB 3.7 AST 5.2 3PM 2.2
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PTS 16.2 REB 5.6 AST 2.8 3PM 1.6
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PTS 12.5 REB 5.0 AST 1.6 3PM 1.5
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AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 20.3 REB 4.1 AST 7.8 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.8 REB 4.3 AST 5.9 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.7 REB 3.1 AST 2.8 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.4 REB 8.7 AST 3.9 3PM 0.8
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 16.6 REB 8.4 AST 1.8 3PM 0.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Javon Small
OR
111.2
DR
121.8
PTS
9.4
VS
James Harden
OR
126.4
DR
117.9
PTS
20.5
SG
Cedric Coward
OR
114.6
DR
118.1
PTS
13.4
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
120.7
DR
115.7
PTS
27.8
SF
Ty Jerome
OR
125.2
DR
125.7
PTS
19.7
VS
Sam Merrill
OR
125.2
DR
119.0
PTS
12.7
PF
GG Jackson II
OR
102.8
DR
104.4
PTS
12.5
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
119.7
DR
112.0
PTS
18.1
C
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
112.2
DR
119.0
PTS
9.7
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
130.1
DR
111.7
PTS
15.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland Cavaliers are projected to win (67.0% probability). Expected starting five — Memphis Grizzlies: Javon Small, Cedric Coward, Ty Jerome, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper. Expected starting five — Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined total of about 239.36 points, signaling a game with above-average scoring and a fairly fast pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -8.42, which favors Cleveland by roughly 8.4 points in this projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 239.4 Most likely outcome: 239 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Cleveland Cavaliers) -8.4 Most likely outcome: -9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis’s power rating has been falling over the last five games, while Cleveland’s has been relatively stable with a slight uptick.

Memphis Grizzlies

1325.6 -26.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-05 Milwaukee Bucks 1325.6 -8.6
2026-04-03 Toronto Raptors 1334.2 -7.0
2026-04-01 New York Knicks 1341.2 -4.4
2026-03-30 Phoenix Suns 1345.6 -6.8
2026-03-28 Chicago Bulls 1352.4 —

Cleveland Cavaliers

1604.0 +2.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-05 Indiana Pacers 1604.0 +2.7
2026-04-02 Golden State Warriors 1601.3 +6.5
2026-03-31 Los Angeles Lakers 1594.8 -10.0
2026-03-30 Utah Jazz 1604.8 +3.2
2026-03-27 Miami Heat 1601.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 115 131 -16
Toronto Raptors 96 128 -32
New York Knicks 119 130 -11
Phoenix Suns 105 131 -26
Chicago Bulls 125 124 +1

Cleveland Cavaliers

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 117 108 +9
Golden State Warriors 118 111 +7
Los Angeles Lakers 113 127 -14
Utah Jazz 122 113 +9
Miami Heat 149 128 +21

Game Analysis

Memphis enters on a three-game losing streak, allowing 131, 128 and 130 points in those games and struggling to stop opponents. Offensively they’ve been inconsistent — a 96-point outing sandwiched between two higher outputs — but recent play suggests defensive breakdowns are the bigger issue. Cleveland is 2-1 over the last three, coming off wins over Indiana (117-108) and Golden State (118-111) and showing more consistency on both ends than Memphis. Looking at the expected starting units, Memphis’s five average an offensive rating of 113.2 and a defensive rating of 117.8, with an average of 12.94 points made per starter. Cleveland’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 124.4 and a defensive rating of 115.3, with an average of 18.90 points made per starter. That gap — especially Cleveland’s offensive firepower and more efficient starting five — helps explain the sizable projected edge.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s combination of higher offensive efficiency and steadier recent form gives them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Memphis can slow Donovan Mitchell and James Harden and limit second-chance points from Jarrett Allen — that matchup battle will likely decide the game.

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