NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Boston Celtics

Home Team
95.9%
VS

New Orleans Pelicans

Away Team
4.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Boston Celtics
PTS 15.3 REB 3.8 AST 5.4 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 29.8 REB 6.3 AST 6.0 3PM 2.5
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.8 REB 4.1 AST 1.6 3PM 1.0
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PTS 10.8 REB 3.9 AST 2.1 3PM 2.7
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PTS 12.2 REB 8.5 AST 2.0 3PM 0.0
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AWAY New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 17.7 REB 3.8 AST 4.6 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 15.2 REB 2.6 AST 2.5 3PM 3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 7.7 REB 3.4 AST 1.9 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 13.3 REB 6.7 AST 3.7 3PM 0.4
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PTS 5.6 REB 7.7 AST 1.4 3PM 0.4
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Derrick White
OR
118.6
DR
112.9
PTS
16.6
VS
Jeremiah Fears
OR
101.5
DR
119.2
PTS
13.7
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.7
DR
113.5
PTS
28.8
VS
Jordan Poole
OR
99.5
DR
122.1
PTS
13.5
SF
Jordan Walsh
OR
113.6
DR
112.9
PTS
5.3
VS
Micah Peavy
OR
82.8
DR
120.4
PTS
4.1
PF
Sam Hauser
OR
117.4
DR
115.8
PTS
9.0
VS
Derik Queen
OR
104.8
DR
114.6
PTS
11.3
C
Neemias Queta
OR
138.1
DR
108.5
PTS
10.3
VS
Kevon Looney
OR
123.5
DR
118.2
PTS
3.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model projects the Boston Celtics to win with 95.9% probability. Expected starting fives — Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta; New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Jordan Poole, Micah Peavy, Derik Queen, Kevon Looney.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected combined total is 226.77 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a solid offensive pace on both ends. The expected spread of 14.29 points (Home - Away) implies a double-digit advantage for the favored side; with Boston picked as the clear favorite, that margin gives them a comfortable cushion.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.8 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - New Orleans Pelicans) 14.3 Most likely outcome: 14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Boston’s power rating is rising modestly (+8.8 over five games) while New Orleans’ trend is falling (-19.7 over five games).

Boston Celtics

1655.5 +8.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-09 New York Knicks 1655.5 -10.9
2026-04-07 Charlotte Hornets 1666.4 +8.4
2026-04-05 Toronto Raptors 1658.0 +6.3
2026-04-03 Milwaukee Bucks 1651.7 +5.0
2026-04-01 Miami Heat 1646.7 —

New Orleans Pelicans

1407.4 -19.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-07 Utah Jazz 1407.4 +7.4
2026-04-05 Orlando Magic 1400.0 -7.8
2026-04-03 Sacramento Kings 1407.8 -11.6
2026-04-02 Portland Trail Blazers 1419.4 -7.7
2026-03-29 Houston Rockets 1427.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 106 112 -6
Charlotte Hornets 113 102 +11
Toronto Raptors 115 101 +14
Milwaukee Bucks 133 101 +32
Miami Heat 147 129 +18

New Orleans Pelicans

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 156 137 +19
Orlando Magic 108 112 -4
Sacramento Kings 113 117 -4
Portland Trail Blazers 106 118 -12
Houston Rockets 102 134 -32

Game Analysis

Boston has won two of its last three (115-101 vs Toronto, 113-102 vs Charlotte) but lost a close game to the Knicks (106-112). Those wins show Boston can score in the 110s while holding teams around 100–102 points; the loss exposed some defensive lapses. New Orleans is 1-2 in its last three, with a blowout offensive night in a 156-137 win over Utah bookended by narrow losses to Orlando (108-112) and Sacramento (113-117), showing inconsistency on both ends. Looking at the projected starting fives, Boston’s group averages an offensive rating of 120.48, defensive rating of 112.72, and a combined 70.0 points made — a strong two-way profile. New Orleans’ starters average an offensive rating of 102.42, defensive rating of 118.90, and a combined 45.6 points made, highlighting a clear drop-off offensively and a worse defensive number. Those gaps in both offense and defense help explain the sizable edge for Boston.

Final Prediction

Boston’s superior net production (120.48 vs 102.42 offensive ratings and 112.72 vs 118.90 defensive ratings for the projected units) and positive momentum give them the edge. Key factor to watch: whether New Orleans can recreate their 156-point outburst to force a faster, higher-variance game or if Boston’s starters control tempo and defensive assignments.

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