Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-02

Cleveland Cavaliers

Home Team
71.8%
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
28.2%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Cleveland Cavaliers

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +12.8 Cleveland Cavaliers
Home-court advantage +7.6 Cleveland Cavaliers
Season record & ratings +3.5 Cleveland Cavaliers
Home/road record +0.7 Oklahoma City Thunder

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 72% for Cleveland Cavaliers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 19.1 REB 5.4 AST 4.4 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.0 REB 7.7 AST 3.4 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.1 REB 5.0 AST 5.6 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.8 REB 9.1 AST 2.3 3PM 0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.1 REB 5.0 AST 3.0 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 16.5 REB 4.9 AST 4.2 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.1 REB 9.6 AST 2.3 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.1 REB 3.9 AST 2.4 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 5.9 REB 5.0 AST 1.1 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.9 REB 5.2 AST 3.4 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
118.7
DR
113.0
PTS
22.7
VS
Ajay Mitchell
OR
110.2
DR
107.5
PTS
16.5
SG
Evan Mobley
OR
136.3
DR
113.7
PTS
19.7
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
114.7
DR
106.3
PTS
9.5
SF
James Harden
OR
110.8
DR
114.0
PTS
16.7
VS
Jared McCain
OR
89.5
DR
115.3
PTS
10.8
PF
Jarrett Allen
OR
137.0
DR
108.5
PTS
15.3
VS
Kenrich Williams
OR
174.2
DR
113.0
PTS
5.0
C
Peyton Watson
OR
94.7
DR
112.0
PTS
10.8
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
113.2
DR
110.8
PTS
26.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland is favored to win, with the forecast giving the Cavaliers a 72% chance. The expected starters are Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen and Peyton Watson for Cleveland, and Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jared McCain, Kenrich Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for Oklahoma City.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 226 total points, with Cleveland ahead by about six. That points to a fairly high-scoring game and a comfortable, rather than close, Cavaliers win.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.2 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Oklahoma City Thunder) 6.4 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Cleveland’s rating has risen over its last five games, while Oklahoma City’s has fallen.

Cleveland Cavaliers

1521.4 +21.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-31 Milwaukee Bucks 1521.4 +11.5
2026-10-29 Atlanta Hawks 1509.9 -10.2
2026-10-28 Washington Wizards 1520.1 +9.5
2026-10-26 Minnesota Timberwolves 1510.6 +10.3
2026-10-24 Brooklyn Nets 1500.3 -

Oklahoma City Thunder

1515.3 -5.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-31 Houston Rockets 1515.3 -10.7
2026-10-28 Dallas Mavericks 1526.0 -12.7
2026-10-26 Phoenix Suns 1538.7 +9.1
2026-10-25 Los Angeles Clippers 1529.6 +8.7
2026-10-22 Denver Nuggets 1520.9 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Cleveland Cavaliers

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 136 111 +25
Atlanta Hawks 111 114 -3
Washington Wizards 121 111 +10
Minnesota Timberwolves 127 125 +2
Brooklyn Nets 125 121 +4

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 98 119 -21
Dallas Mavericks 96 120 -24
Phoenix Suns 125 114 +11
Los Angeles Clippers 108 101 +7
Denver Nuggets 96 84 +12

Game Analysis

The biggest separation in the forecast is the expected starting groups, with home court adding another lift for Cleveland. The Cavaliers have more scoring options among their listed starters, while Oklahoma City’s offense leans heavily on Gilgeous-Alexander, who averages 26 points. Recent form also tilts toward Cleveland: it has won two of its last three, including a 25-point victory over Milwaukee, while the Thunder have dropped consecutive games by at least 21 points. Oklahoma City’s slight advantage in home and road record offers a counterweight, but the provided factors otherwise favor Cleveland.

Final Prediction

Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to outscore Cleveland’s leading options could make the forecast less secure, particularly if the Thunder’s other starters contribute more than they have in recent losses.

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