Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-04

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
59.0%
VS

Indiana Pacers

Away Team
41.0%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Memphis Grizzlies

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 Memphis Grizzlies
Home/road record +5.7 Memphis Grizzlies
Recent team form +2.4 Indiana Pacers

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Memphis Grizzlies. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Memphis Grizzlies
PTS 8.1 REB 6.8 AST 1.2 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.7 REB 8.8 AST 5.0 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.5 REB 7.9 AST 2.9 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.5 REB 3.9 AST 1.5 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 24.2 REB 4.3 AST 5.0 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Indiana Pacers
PTS 5.6 REB 6.8 AST 1.2 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.2 REB 3.4 AST 1.7 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.8 REB 3.4 AST 5.9 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.6 REB 3.9 AST 1.2 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.8 REB 7.5 AST 3.6 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Zach Edey
OR
122.2
DR
105.5
PTS
6.8
VS
Ivica Zubac
OR
114.7
DR
111.7
PTS
9.0
SG
Cameron Boozer
OR
114.4
DR
107.0
PTS
17.7
VS
Aaron Nesmith
OR
109.2
DR
118.8
PTS
12.2
SF
Cedric Coward
OR
125.7
DR
103.5
PTS
12.5
VS
Andrew Nembhard
OR
121.0
DR
121.0
PTS
18.5
PF
Jaylen Wells
OR
134.6
DR
111.1
PTS
12.7
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
110.0
DR
119.4
PTS
9.4
C
Ty Jerome
OR
126.3
DR
112.8
PTS
28.2
VS
Pascal Siakam
OR
105.9
DR
115.3
PTS
21.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Memphis is favored to win, with a 59 percent chance. The expected starters are Zach Edey, Cameron Boozer, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells and Ty Jerome for Memphis, and Ivica Zubac, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Pascal Siakam for Indiana.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 230 combined points and an 11-point Memphis margin. That points to a high-scoring game and a comfortable home win.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.8 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Indiana Pacers) 10.5 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis’s rating has risen over the last five games, while Indiana’s has fallen sharply.

Memphis Grizzlies

1548.1 +17.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 New Orleans Pelicans 1548.1 -12.1
2026-10-31 Sacramento Kings 1560.2 +7.9
2026-10-29 Portland Trail Blazers 1552.3 +12.3
2026-10-26 Utah Jazz 1540.0 +9.4
2026-10-25 Sacramento Kings 1530.6 -

Indiana Pacers

1456.5 -43.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 Atlanta Hawks 1456.5 -9.8
2026-11-01 Brooklyn Nets 1466.3 -11.9
2026-10-30 Miami Heat 1478.2 -11.5
2026-10-28 Philadelphia 76ers 1489.7 -10.0
2026-10-26 Milwaukee Bucks 1499.7 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New Orleans Pelicans 134 135 -1
Sacramento Kings 136 105 +31
Portland Trail Blazers 124 103 +21
Utah Jazz 110 105 +5
Sacramento Kings 123 112 +11

Indiana Pacers

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 104 108 -4
Brooklyn Nets 90 98 -8
Miami Heat 125 145 -20
Philadelphia 76ers 109 114 -5
Milwaukee Bucks 102 110 -8

Game Analysis

Home court and Memphis’s home-road record are the main supports for the forecast, giving the Grizzlies an advantage before the individual matchups come into play. Ty Jerome’s 28-point scoring average is the standout mark among the listed starters, while Pascal Siakam’s 21-point average gives Indiana a clear scoring threat. Memphis has won two of its last three, including two decisive victories, while the Pacers have dropped three straight.

Final Prediction

Indiana can narrow the gap if Siakam’s scoring keeps pace with Memphis’s output and helps offset the home advantage.

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