Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-06

Milwaukee Bucks

Home Team
22.5%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
77.5%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Toronto Raptors

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +28.5 Toronto Raptors
Home-court advantage +7.6 Milwaukee Bucks
Recent team form +5.0 Toronto Raptors
Home/road record +1.6 Toronto Raptors
Season record & ratings +0.6 Milwaukee Bucks

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 78% for Toronto Raptors. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Milwaukee Bucks
PTS 12.5 REB 5.5 AST 2.0 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.6 REB 6.0 AST 2.7 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.0 REB 5.5 AST 2.8 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.7 REB 6.2 AST 2.6 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.4 REB 5.0 AST 3.6 3PM 3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Toronto Raptors
PTS 7.1 REB 6.5 AST 1.5 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.6 REB 4.2 AST 4.8 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.9 REB 4.7 AST 2.4 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.0 REB 6.5 AST 3.6 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 24.2 REB 8.3 AST 5.3 3PM 0.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Brayden Burries
OR
114.5
DR
120.2
PTS
8.9
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
104.3
DR
111.3
PTS
5.2
SG
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
OR
112.4
DR
121.4
PTS
16.8
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
127.1
DR
116.5
PTS
17.4
SF
Kyle Kuzma
OR
99.8
DR
119.6
PTS
9.5
VS
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
128.9
DR
113.9
PTS
11.4
PF
Myles Turner
OR
96.1
DR
116.1
PTS
8.5
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
117.5
DR
116.8
PTS
20.9
C
Tyler Herro
OR
116.4
DR
120.9
PTS
22.2
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
99.8
DR
109.6
PTS
23.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Toronto is favored at 78 percent, despite Milwaukee’s home-court advantage. Milwaukee is expected to start Brayden Burries, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner and Tyler Herro, while Toronto’s five is Jakob Poeltl, Immanuel Quickley, Ja’Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 229 points, with the rounded margin at zero and a fraction of a point toward Toronto. That points to a relatively high-scoring game with a close finish rather than a comfortable win.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.0 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Milwaukee Bucks - Toronto Raptors) -0.2 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have fallen over their last five games, with Milwaukee’s decline steeper than Toronto’s.

Milwaukee Bucks

1442.9 -38.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Boston Celtics 1442.9 -7.2
2026-11-02 Minnesota Timberwolves 1450.1 -8.3
2026-10-31 Cleveland Cavaliers 1458.4 -11.5
2026-10-28 Houston Rockets 1469.9 -11.0
2026-10-26 Indiana Pacers 1480.9 -

Toronto Raptors

1501.3 -22.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Denver Nuggets 1501.3 -11.3
2026-11-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1512.6 +9.9
2026-11-01 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.7 -9.2
2026-10-30 Orlando Magic 1511.9 -11.9
2026-10-28 Orlando Magic 1523.8 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 102 109 -7
Minnesota Timberwolves 100 112 -12
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 136 -25
Houston Rockets 100 132 -32
Indiana Pacers 110 102 +8

Toronto Raptors

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 109 128 -19
Los Angeles Clippers 125 118 +7
Los Angeles Lakers 125 131 -6
Orlando Magic 114 121 -7
Orlando Magic 129 99 +30

Game Analysis

The biggest separation is in the expected starting groups: Toronto’s starters rate more favorably across the lineup, while Milwaukee’s group has several weaker defensive marks. Scottie Barnes combines Toronto’s highest listed scoring average, 24 points, with a 110 defensive rating, giving the Raptors a strong two-way presence. Milwaukee’s home floor is its clearest counterweight, but the Bucks have lost three straight. Toronto has won once in its last three, so neither team arrives on a strong run. Tyler Herro’s 22-point average gives Milwaukee a reliable scoring option, while Toronto’s stronger starting group is the main reason for the forecast.

Final Prediction

If Herro’s scoring carries over against Toronto, Milwaukee could make its home-court advantage count in a game projected to be nearly even.

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