Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-06

Sacramento Kings

Home Team
12.6%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
87.4%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors San Antonio Spurs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +36.9 San Antonio Spurs
Home-court advantage +7.6 Sacramento Kings
Season record & ratings +5.7 San Antonio Spurs
Home/road record +3.0 San Antonio Spurs
Lineup stability +0.7 San Antonio Spurs

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 87% for San Antonio Spurs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Sacramento Kings
PTS 24.9 REB 4.3 AST 5.9 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.9 REB 5.1 AST 1.6 3PM 1.9
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PTS 13.6 REB 13.6 AST 5.0 3PM 0.1
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PTS 10.5 REB 6.8 AST 1.6 3PM 0.3
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PTS 20.1 REB 4.1 AST 2.6 3PM 2.3
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 16.0 REB 4.5 AST 5.2 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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PTS 13.5 REB 4.3 AST 3.1 3PM 1.6
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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PTS 18.4 REB 5.5 AST 4.4 3PM 1.5
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PTS 15.8 REB 5.5 AST 4.1 3PM 2.1
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PTS 28.8 REB 11.8 AST 3.6 3PM 2.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Darius Acuff Jr.
OR
100.5
DR
124.2
PTS
25.6
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
119.6
DR
109.2
PTS
15.1
SG
De'Andre Hunter
OR
103.5
DR
124.1
PTS
13.0
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
105.0
DR
108.8
PTS
10.6
SF
Domantas Sabonis
OR
128.9
DR
118.1
PTS
15.1
VS
Dylan Harper
OR
124.4
DR
110.0
PTS
18.6
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
111.0
DR
116.9
PTS
11.0
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
98.6
DR
109.4
PTS
15.0
C
Zach LaVine
OR
113.6
DR
123.5
PTS
23.1
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
115.0
DR
95.8
PTS
29.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio is favored to win, with an 87% chance according to the forecast. Sacramento’s expected starters are Darius Acuff Jr., De’Andre Hunter, Domantas Sabonis, Precious Achiuwa and Zach LaVine, while San Antonio’s are De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 232 points, with San Antonio expected to win by about 10. That points to a comfortable Spurs victory in a game with plenty of scoring.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.7 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - San Antonio Spurs) -9.9 Most likely outcome: -10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s rating has risen over its last five games, while Sacramento’s has fallen.

Sacramento Kings

1444.9 -13.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Los Angeles Lakers 1444.9 -8.5
2026-11-02 Dallas Mavericks 1453.4 +13.6
2026-10-31 Memphis Grizzlies 1439.8 -7.8
2026-10-29 New Orleans Pelicans 1447.6 -10.5
2026-10-27 San Antonio Spurs 1458.1 -

San Antonio Spurs

1538.7 +37.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Dallas Mavericks 1538.7 +8.4
2026-11-02 Utah Jazz 1530.3 +8.7
2026-10-31 Minnesota Timberwolves 1521.6 +10.0
2026-10-28 Utah Jazz 1511.6 +10.6
2026-10-27 Sacramento Kings 1501.0 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Sacramento Kings

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 103 116 -13
Dallas Mavericks 115 100 +15
Memphis Grizzlies 105 136 -31
New Orleans Pelicans 120 132 -12
San Antonio Spurs 103 130 -27

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 112 111 +1
Utah Jazz 119 97 +22
Minnesota Timberwolves 121 111 +10
Utah Jazz 117 111 +6
Sacramento Kings 130 103 +27

Game Analysis

The biggest separation is in the expected starting groups. San Antonio has the stronger two-way profile, led by Wembanyama, whose projected 29 points make him the top scorer in the matchup and whose defensive numbers also stand out. Sacramento will need its starters to match that impact on both ends. Home court gives the Kings some help, but San Antonio arrives on a three-game winning streak, including a one-point win over Dallas. Sacramento has lost two of its last three, including a 33-point defeat to Memphis. The recent form and the stronger starting five both support the Spurs forecast.

Final Prediction

Sabonis’ efficient offense is Sacramento’s clearest route to changing the outlook. If he can produce against Wembanyama without giving up San Antonio’s advantage on defense, the Kings could make the projected margin less comfortable.

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