Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-07

Indiana Pacers

Home Team
27.3%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
72.7%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Denver Nuggets

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +26.0 Denver Nuggets
Home-court advantage +7.6 Indiana Pacers
Recent team form +4.3 Denver Nuggets
Season record & ratings +2.0 Denver Nuggets
Home/road record +1.4 Denver Nuggets

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 73% for Denver Nuggets. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Indiana Pacers
PTS 6.0 REB 6.5 AST 1.4 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.2 REB 3.8 AST 2.0 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.9 REB 3.6 AST 6.0 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.1 REB 4.2 AST 1.1 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.6 REB 7.3 AST 3.6 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Denver Nuggets
PTS 11.6 REB 5.7 AST 2.0 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.9 REB 5.0 AST 1.9 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.2 REB 4.6 AST 2.3 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.3 REB 5.7 AST 4.9 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.4 REB 9.3 AST 7.9 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Ivica Zubac
OR
97.5
DR
110.8
PTS
7.0
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
114.4
DR
117.6
PTS
12.3
SG
Aaron Nesmith
OR
107.1
DR
115.9
PTS
12.7
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
121.8
DR
118.8
PTS
9.0
SF
Andrew Nembhard
OR
121.4
DR
118.9
PTS
19.0
VS
Christian Braun
OR
122.9
DR
117.4
PTS
14.6
PF
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
110.0
DR
119.4
PTS
9.4
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
119.9
DR
118.0
PTS
25.4
C
Pascal Siakam
OR
110.9
DR
113.0
PTS
21.2
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
119.6
DR
111.7
PTS
23.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver is favored, with a 73% chance to win. Indiana is expected to start Ivica Zubac, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Pascal Siakam, while Denver is projected to start Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 230 points, with Denver expected to win by about four. That points to a close, relatively high-scoring game rather than a comfortable margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 230.4 Most likely outcome: 230 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Denver Nuggets) -4.3 Most likely outcome: -5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Denver’s rating has risen over the last five games, while Indiana’s has fallen overall despite a late uptick.

Indiana Pacers

1469.0 -20.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Memphis Grizzlies 1469.0 +12.5
2026-11-02 Atlanta Hawks 1456.5 -9.8
2026-11-01 Brooklyn Nets 1466.3 -11.9
2026-10-30 Miami Heat 1478.2 -11.5
2026-10-28 Philadelphia 76ers 1489.7 -

Denver Nuggets

1509.9 +23.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Toronto Raptors 1509.9 +11.3
2026-11-02 Portland Trail Blazers 1498.6 -10.5
2026-10-30 Phoenix Suns 1509.1 +11.1
2026-10-28 New Orleans Pelicans 1498.0 +11.4
2026-10-26 Golden State Warriors 1486.6 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Indiana Pacers

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 107 103 +4
Atlanta Hawks 104 108 -4
Brooklyn Nets 90 98 -8
Miami Heat 125 145 -20
Philadelphia 76ers 109 114 -5

Denver Nuggets

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 128 109 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 110 118 -8
Phoenix Suns 127 120 +7
New Orleans Pelicans 104 91 +13
Golden State Warriors 114 134 -20

Game Analysis

The clearest separation is in the expected starting groups, which favor Denver. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić give the Nuggets two strong scoring options, averaging 25 and 23 points, respectively. Indiana’s home-court advantage is a counterweight, but the forecast still reflects Denver’s stronger projected lineup. Recent form also tilts Denver’s way: it has won two of its past three, while Indiana has won once in that span. The Pacers did close their latest stretch with a win, but their rating trend remains down overall. Indiana will need its starters to make the most of the home floor and keep Denver’s offense from finding a rhythm.

Final Prediction

Indiana’s best route to changing the forecast is for Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard, its two leading listed scorers, to outproduce Denver’s top scoring pair. If they do, the Nuggets’ expected advantage in the starting groups could narrow.

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