Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-07

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
25.8%
VS

Houston Rockets

Away Team
74.2%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Houston Rockets

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +29.3 Houston Rockets
Home-court advantage +7.6 Phoenix Suns
Season record & ratings +3.9 Houston Rockets
Home/road record +2.9 Houston Rockets
Recent team form +1.9 Phoenix Suns

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Houston Rockets. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Phoenix Suns
PTS 8.8 REB 7.1 AST 1.9 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.7 REB 4.0 AST 4.7 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.5 REB 5.0 AST 3.0 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.3 REB 4.3 AST 3.4 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.5 REB 8.4 AST 3.3 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Houston Rockets
PTS 19.5 REB 9.5 AST 7.2 3PM 0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.6 REB 6.7 AST 2.9 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.6 REB 4.4 AST 4.9 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.4 REB 6.3 AST 2.3 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.8 REB 6.2 AST 3.3 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Khaman Maluach
OR
113.4
DR
117.7
PTS
7.3
VS
Alperen Şengün
OR
126.0
DR
108.7
PTS
22.4
SG
Devin Booker
OR
121.3
DR
126.6
PTS
25.4
VS
Amen Thompson
OR
120.6
DR
112.8
PTS
15.4
SF
Dillon Brooks
OR
116.7
DR
124.6
PTS
17.6
VS
Fred VanVleet
OR
124.7
DR
111.9
PTS
13.0
PF
Jalen Green
OR
90.1
DR
125.4
PTS
11.9
VS
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
134.7
DR
112.4
PTS
17.6
C
Miles Bridges
OR
127.3
DR
118.6
PTS
17.4
VS
Kevin Durant
OR
121.6
DR
110.8
PTS
20.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston is favored to win, with a 74% chance according to the forecast. Phoenix is expected to start Khaman Maluach, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and Miles Bridges, while Houston’s expected five is Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr. and Kevin Durant.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 234 points, pointing to a high-scoring game. Houston is forecast to win by about five, a modest margin that suggests a fairly close contest.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.4 Most likely outcome: 234 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Houston Rockets) -4.8 Most likely outcome: -5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings fell over the last five games, though Phoenix’s decline was sharper while Houston’s was close to steady.

Phoenix Suns

1469.2 -17.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-05 Orlando Magic 1469.2 +11.0
2026-11-04 Portland Trail Blazers 1458.2 -9.2
2026-11-02 Golden State Warriors 1467.4 -8.6
2026-10-30 Denver Nuggets 1476.0 -11.1
2026-10-26 Oklahoma City Thunder 1487.1 -

Houston Rockets

1550.1 -2.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Minnesota Timberwolves 1550.1 -12.3
2026-11-02 Boston Celtics 1562.4 +9.7
2026-10-31 Oklahoma City Thunder 1552.7 +10.7
2026-10-30 Dallas Mavericks 1542.0 -10.6
2026-10-28 Milwaukee Bucks 1552.6 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 117 104 +13
Portland Trail Blazers 119 132 -13
Golden State Warriors 113 116 -3
Denver Nuggets 120 127 -7
Oklahoma City Thunder 114 125 -11

Houston Rockets

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 107 117 -10
Boston Celtics 109 93 +16
Oklahoma City Thunder 119 98 +21
Dallas Mavericks 111 116 -5
Milwaukee Bucks 132 100 +32

Game Analysis

The biggest separation is in the expected starting groups. Houston has stronger two-way numbers across the five, with Şengün and Smith offering particularly strong profiles at both ends. That depth in the opening lineup is the clearest reason the forecast favors the Rockets. Phoenix’s home court is a meaningful counter, and its recent form gives it a small boost in the matchup. Still, Houston also has the better season and home-road indicators in the supplied factors. The Suns’ 117-104 win over Orlando was a positive result, but their rating remains well below Houston’s.

Final Prediction

Booker’s scoring is Phoenix’s clearest route to changing the outlook. If he can give the Suns a major offensive lift at home, they could overcome Houston’s advantage across the starting five.

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