Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-09

Houston Rockets

Home Team
61.9%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
38.1%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Houston Rockets

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 Houston Rockets
Recent team form +2.0 Houston Rockets
Season record & ratings +1.4 Houston Rockets
Home/road record +0.8 Houston Rockets

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Houston Rockets. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Houston Rockets
PTS 21.0 REB 8.7 AST 7.1 3PM 0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.2 REB 6.6 AST 2.7 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.7 REB 3.7 AST 4.9 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 6.4 AST 2.5 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.3 REB 6.1 AST 3.5 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Denver Nuggets
PTS 11.7 REB 5.5 AST 1.9 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.5 REB 4.8 AST 2.0 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.8 REB 4.3 AST 2.2 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.1 REB 5.5 AST 4.8 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.7 REB 9.7 AST 7.5 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Alperen Şengün
OR
122.5
DR
108.9
PTS
21.5
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
110.4
DR
116.2
PTS
12.2
SG
Amen Thompson
OR
120.0
DR
112.0
PTS
15.6
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
122.8
DR
115.6
PTS
10.8
SF
Fred VanVleet
OR
124.8
DR
111.8
PTS
13.4
VS
Christian Braun
OR
117.2
DR
115.6
PTS
13.5
PF
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
134.2
DR
111.3
PTS
17.3
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
120.2
DR
116.6
PTS
24.2
C
Kevin Durant
OR
121.1
DR
110.3
PTS
20.8
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
118.6
DR
110.4
PTS
22.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston is favored at 62%, a modest edge rather than a runaway. The expected starters are Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr. and Kevin Durant for Houston, and Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić for Denver.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 225 combined points, with Houston ahead by about seven. That points to a competitive game, with the Rockets projected to win by a modest cushion.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.5 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Denver Nuggets) 6.9 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Houston’s rating has fallen slightly over its last five games, while Denver’s has risen sharply.

Houston Rockets

1538.8 -3.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Phoenix Suns 1538.8 -11.3
2026-11-04 Minnesota Timberwolves 1550.1 -12.3
2026-11-02 Boston Celtics 1562.4 +9.7
2026-10-31 Oklahoma City Thunder 1552.7 +10.7
2026-10-30 Dallas Mavericks 1542.0 -

Denver Nuggets

1520.2 +22.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Indiana Pacers 1520.2 +10.3
2026-11-04 Toronto Raptors 1509.9 +11.3
2026-11-02 Portland Trail Blazers 1498.6 -10.5
2026-10-30 Phoenix Suns 1509.1 +11.1
2026-10-28 New Orleans Pelicans 1498.0 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 99 102 -3
Minnesota Timberwolves 107 117 -10
Boston Celtics 109 93 +16
Oklahoma City Thunder 119 98 +21
Dallas Mavericks 111 116 -5

Denver Nuggets

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 114 102 +12
Toronto Raptors 128 109 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 110 118 -8
Phoenix Suns 127 120 +7
New Orleans Pelicans 104 91 +13

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest support for Houston, with a smaller lift from its season profile. The Rockets’ recent stretch includes a 16-point win over Boston and a three-point loss to Phoenix, while Denver arrives after two straight wins. That run gives the Nuggets a case to challenge the forecast. Jamal Murray is Denver’s leading listed scorer at 24 points per game, while Houston can answer with Şengün at 22. Their scoring matchup matters in a projection near 225, particularly if Denver’s recent offensive production carries over.

Final Prediction

If Jokić wins the matchup with Şengün in the middle, Denver has a direct path to erase Houston’s home-court advantage.

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