Toronto Raptors vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction
NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-09
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
70.1%
VS
Memphis Grizzlies
Away Team
29.9%
Why the Model Favors Toronto Raptors
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Toronto Raptors. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Toronto Raptors
Jakob Poeltl
PTS
9.3
REB
7.0
AST
1.8
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Immanuel Quickley
PTS
17.9
REB
3.9
AST
4.8
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ja'Kobe Walter
PTS
12.2
REB
4.3
AST
2.4
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
RJ Barrett
PTS
21.5
REB
5.8
AST
3.6
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Scottie Barnes
PTS
25.1
REB
7.8
AST
5.6
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Memphis Grizzlies
Zach Edey
PTS
8.9
REB
7.6
AST
1.4
3PM
0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Cameron Boozer
PTS
17.3
REB
8.6
AST
5.0
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Cedric Coward
PTS
12.8
REB
7.9
AST
2.8
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jaylen Wells
PTS
9.6
REB
3.6
AST
1.6
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ty Jerome
PTS
23.0
REB
4.2
AST
4.8
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jakob Poeltl
OR
108.4
DR
109.9
PTS
7.1
VS
Zach Edey
OR
122.2
DR
107.4
PTS
8.2
SG
Immanuel Quickley
OR
127.1
DR
116.5
PTS
17.4
VS
Cameron Boozer
OR
104.3
DR
109.0
PTS
15.8
SF
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
123.0
DR
113.1
PTS
10.9
VS
Cedric Coward
OR
117.8
DR
104.1
PTS
13.5
PF
RJ Barrett
OR
116.7
DR
116.4
PTS
21.6
VS
Jaylen Wells
OR
117.8
DR
112.2
PTS
10.7
C
Scottie Barnes
OR
99.8
DR
109.6
PTS
23.5
VS
Ty Jerome
OR
121.9
DR
114.0
PTS
26.6
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto is favored at home, with a 70% win probability, giving the Raptors a clear advantage. The expected starters are Jakob Poeltl, Immanuel Quickley, Ja'Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes for Toronto, and Zach Edey, Cameron Boozer, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells and Ty Jerome for Memphis.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected total of 230 points points to a relatively high-scoring game. Toronto is forecast to win by seven, a comfortable margin rather than a close finish.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
229.8
Most likely outcome: 229 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Memphis Grizzlies)
6.7
Most likely outcome: 6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Toronto’s rating has been essentially stable over the last five games, while Memphis’ has fallen sharply.
Toronto Raptors
1511.1
-0.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1511.1 | +9.8 |
| 2026-11-04 | Denver Nuggets | 1501.3 | -11.3 |
| 2026-11-02 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1512.6 | +9.9 |
| 2026-11-01 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1502.7 | -9.2 |
| 2026-10-30 | Orlando Magic | 1511.9 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
1522.4
-29.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1522.4 | -13.2 |
| 2026-11-04 | Indiana Pacers | 1535.6 | -12.5 |
| 2026-11-02 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1548.1 | -12.1 |
| 2026-10-31 | Sacramento Kings | 1560.2 | +7.9 |
| 2026-10-29 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1552.3 | - |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Toronto Raptors
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 121 | 107 | +14 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 109 | 128 | -19 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 125 | 118 | +7 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 125 | 131 | -6 | |
| Orlando Magic | 114 | 121 | -7 |
Memphis Grizzlies
2-3 in last 5
L
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 97 | 128 | -31 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 103 | 107 | -4 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 134 | 135 | -1 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 136 | 105 | +31 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 124 | 103 | +21 |
Game Analysis
Toronto’s home floor and expected starting group are central to its advantage. The Raptors also have more momentum from recent results, winning two of their past three, including a 14-point victory over Milwaukee.
Memphis has lost three straight, though its latest defeat was a one-point game against New Orleans. Ty Jerome’s 27-point average is a major scoring threat for the Grizzlies, while Scottie Barnes leads Toronto at 24 points per game.
Final Prediction
Jerome’s scoring is the clearest route to an upset. If he can outscore Toronto’s leading option and keep Memphis within reach, the forecast could shift.
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