Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-11

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
59.2%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
40.8%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Memphis Grizzlies

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 Memphis Grizzlies
Starting five +4.4 Memphis Grizzlies
Recent team form +0.9 Denver Nuggets
Home/road record +0.9 Memphis Grizzlies
Season record & ratings +0.6 Denver Nuggets

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Memphis Grizzlies. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Memphis Grizzlies
PTS 10.1 REB 7.8 AST 1.4 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.8 REB 8.5 AST 5.4 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.2 REB 7.6 AST 3.1 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.2 REB 3.5 AST 1.6 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.6 REB 4.4 AST 4.8 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Denver Nuggets
PTS 12.1 REB 4.4 AST 1.9 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.0 REB 3.8 AST 2.0 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.3 REB 3.9 AST 2.2 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 24.0 REB 4.8 AST 4.6 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.4 REB 9.2 AST 7.6 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Zach Edey
OR
121.7
DR
107.2
PTS
8.2
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
104.1
DR
117.1
PTS
11.2
SG
Cameron Boozer
OR
105.5
DR
109.4
PTS
16.4
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
117.0
DR
115.8
PTS
10.3
SF
Cedric Coward
OR
116.9
DR
103.9
PTS
12.3
VS
Christian Braun
OR
111.0
DR
115.0
PTS
12.4
PF
Jaylen Wells
OR
124.6
DR
112.7
PTS
11.0
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
122.7
DR
117.0
PTS
25.8
C
Ty Jerome
OR
122.6
DR
114.2
PTS
26.7
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
118.2
DR
109.9
PTS
23.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Memphis is favored to win, with a 59% chance in a matchup that looks competitive rather than one-sided. The expected starters are Zach Edey, Cameron Boozer, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells and Ty Jerome for Memphis, and Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić for Denver.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 232 combined points, pointing to a high-scoring game. Memphis is expected to win by about five, a modest margin that fits the close forecast.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.7 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Denver Nuggets) 4.5 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis’s rating has fallen over the last five games, while Denver’s has been essentially stable with a slight rise.

Memphis Grizzlies

1534.2 -26.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Toronto Raptors 1534.2 +11.8
2026-11-06 Oklahoma City Thunder 1522.4 -13.2
2026-11-04 Indiana Pacers 1535.6 -12.5
2026-11-02 New Orleans Pelicans 1548.1 -12.1
2026-10-31 Sacramento Kings 1560.2 -

Denver Nuggets

1510.9 +1.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Houston Rockets 1510.9 -9.3
2026-11-07 Indiana Pacers 1520.2 +10.3
2026-11-04 Toronto Raptors 1509.9 +11.3
2026-11-02 Portland Trail Blazers 1498.6 -10.5
2026-10-30 Phoenix Suns 1509.1 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

2-3 in last 5
W L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 118 102 +16
Oklahoma City Thunder 97 128 -31
Indiana Pacers 103 107 -4
New Orleans Pelicans 134 135 -1
Sacramento Kings 136 105 +31

Denver Nuggets

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 100 110 -10
Indiana Pacers 114 102 +12
Toronto Raptors 128 109 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 110 118 -8
Phoenix Suns 127 120 +7

Game Analysis

Home court and Memphis’s expected starting group are the clearest reasons for the forecast. Ty Jerome’s 27 points per game give the Grizzlies a potent scoring option, while Denver counters with Jamal Murray, averaging 26. Denver has the better recent record, winning two of its last three, while Memphis has won once in that span. That form is a small counterweight to the home advantage, but it has not erased the projected gap between the starting groups.

Final Prediction

Denver can narrow the gap if Murray’s scoring outpaces Jerome’s, especially with the Nuggets’ recent results offering a small sign of momentum.

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