Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-12

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
39.5%
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
60.5%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Dallas Mavericks

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +25.8 Dallas Mavericks
Home-court advantage +7.6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Recent team form +2.7 Minnesota Timberwolves
Season record & ratings +1.6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Rest & schedule +1.3 Minnesota Timberwolves

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Dallas Mavericks. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 8.4 REB 10.6 AST 1.5 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.5 REB 5.4 AST 4.0 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.9 REB 5.8 AST 3.1 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.8 REB 5.4 AST 2.4 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.2 REB 4.1 AST 5.3 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Dallas Mavericks
PTS 4.5 REB 3.3 AST 1.2 3PM 0.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 24.0 REB 7.5 AST 6.3 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.3 REB 5.8 AST 1.6 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.8 REB 4.0 AST 3.4 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.3 REB 7.0 AST 1.6 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Rudy Gobert
OR
109.6
DR
102.4
PTS
7.8
VS
Caleb Martin
OR
121.7
DR
113.3
PTS
3.6
SG
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
121.5
DR
107.0
PTS
18.1
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
124.9
DR
105.4
PTS
25.9
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
122.5
DR
107.5
PTS
17.0
VS
Daniel Gafford
OR
134.6
DR
107.9
PTS
9.6
PF
Jonathan Kuminga
OR
112.8
DR
106.2
PTS
12.3
VS
Kyrie Irving
OR
124.0
DR
110.6
PTS
22.9
C
LaMelo Ball
OR
111.6
DR
104.8
PTS
18.3
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
106.7
DR
111.1
PTS
14.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Dallas is favored to win, with a 61% win probability. Minnesota is expected to start Rudy Gobert, Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga and LaMelo Ball, while Dallas is expected to start Caleb Martin, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 219 points, with a six-point margin, pointing to a relatively close game rather than a high-scoring shootout. The point-spread calculation favors home team Minnesota by six, unlike the winner-probability model, which favors Dallas. These are separate models, and both results are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 219.4 Most likely outcome: 219 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Dallas Mavericks) 6.0 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are rising over the last five games, with Minnesota gaining 37 points and Dallas gaining 17.

Minnesota Timberwolves

1551.4 +37.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Utah Jazz 1551.4 +6.7
2026-11-06 New Orleans Pelicans 1544.7 +10.2
2026-11-04 Houston Rockets 1534.5 +12.3
2026-11-02 Milwaukee Bucks 1522.2 +8.2
2026-10-31 San Antonio Spurs 1514.0 -

Dallas Mavericks

1526.0 +17.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Indiana Pacers 1526.0 +7.4
2026-11-08 Brooklyn Nets 1518.6 +10.2
2026-11-06 Utah Jazz 1508.4 +8.1
2026-11-04 San Antonio Spurs 1500.3 -8.4
2026-11-02 Sacramento Kings 1508.7 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 115 100 +15
New Orleans Pelicans 115 109 +6
Houston Rockets 117 107 +10
Milwaukee Bucks 112 100 +12
San Antonio Spurs 111 121 -10

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 125 122 +3
Brooklyn Nets 130 93 +37
Utah Jazz 112 100 +12
San Antonio Spurs 111 112 -1
Sacramento Kings 100 115 -15

Game Analysis

The biggest separation is in the projected starting groups, which strongly favors Dallas. Cooper Flagg leads the listed starters in projected scoring, giving the Mavericks a potent option alongside Kyrie Irving. Minnesota has the home-court benefit and the stronger recent rating trend, and both teams enter on three-game winning streaks. The Wolves have scored at least 115 in each of those wins, but Dallas has also produced two convincing victories and a narrow win in its latest game.

Final Prediction

Minnesota’s best route to an upset is for LaMelo Ball to make his scoring a problem for Dallas’s perimeter defense. That could help offset the advantage Dallas gets from its starting group.

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