Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-12

Washington Wizards

Home Team
27.1%
VS

Detroit Pistons

Away Team
72.9%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Detroit Pistons

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +16.8 Detroit Pistons
Recent team form +8.1 Detroit Pistons
Home-court advantage +7.6 Washington Wizards
Season record & ratings +4.8 Detroit Pistons
Rest & schedule +2.1 Detroit Pistons

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 73% for Detroit Pistons. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Washington Wizards
PTS 17.1 REB 6.4 AST 2.5 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.3 REB 7.8 AST 1.7 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 24.1 REB 10.0 AST 2.2 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.5 REB 5.2 AST 4.6 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.2 REB 3.8 AST 6.4 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Detroit Pistons
PTS 10.9 REB 8.3 AST 4.6 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.2 REB 5.6 AST 7.2 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.4 REB 4.3 AST 5.0 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.9 REB 3.4 AST 2.5 3PM 3.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.1 REB 5.9 AST 1.5 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
AJ Dybantsa
OR
99.6
DR
116.5
PTS
16.2
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
104.8
DR
104.0
PTS
9.3
SG
Alex Sarr
OR
108.9
DR
111.6
PTS
9.5
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
111.5
DR
104.5
PTS
22.3
SF
Anthony Davis
OR
113.0
DR
108.1
PTS
25.2
VS
Daniss Jenkins
OR
119.5
DR
110.4
PTS
12.7
PF
Kyshawn George
OR
107.2
DR
116.8
PTS
18.5
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
133.6
DR
108.8
PTS
18.6
C
Trae Young
OR
114.9
DR
117.6
PTS
18.2
VS
John Collins
OR
107.2
DR
106.9
PTS
10.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Detroit is favored to win, with a 73% chance, as its stronger projected starting group and better recent form outweigh Washington’s home-court advantage. Washington is expected to start AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Anthony Davis, Kyshawn George and Trae Young, while Detroit is set to start Ausar Thompson, Cade Cunningham, Daniss Jenkins, Duncan Robinson and John Collins.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 227 combined points, with Detroit winning by about four. That points to a fairly high-scoring, close game rather than a comfortable margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.8 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Detroit Pistons) -3.9 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Washington’s rating has fallen sharply over its last five games, while Detroit’s has been essentially stable.

Washington Wizards

1460.2 -39.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-11 Indiana Pacers 1460.2 -11.0
2026-11-09 Detroit Pistons 1471.2 -8.5
2026-11-07 Oklahoma City Thunder 1479.7 -10.5
2026-11-06 Atlanta Hawks 1490.2 -9.5
2026-11-04 Atlanta Hawks 1499.7 -

Detroit Pistons

1538.5 -1.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Washington Wizards 1538.5 +8.6
2026-11-08 Los Angeles Lakers 1529.9 -10.4
2026-11-04 Philadelphia 76ers 1540.3 -11.1
2026-11-02 Charlotte Hornets 1551.4 +11.5
2026-10-30 Brooklyn Nets 1539.9 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Washington Wizards

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 101 114 -13
Detroit Pistons 111 122 -11
Oklahoma City Thunder 75 114 -39
Atlanta Hawks 132 139 -7
Atlanta Hawks 105 120 -15

Detroit Pistons

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 122 111 +11
Los Angeles Lakers 116 121 -5
Philadelphia 76ers 106 112 -6
Charlotte Hornets 124 91 +33
Brooklyn Nets 110 94 +16

Game Analysis

Detroit’s starting group is the clearest separation in the matchup, and its recent form adds to that advantage: it beat Washington 122-111 in their last meeting, while the Wizards have lost three straight. Detroit’s recent results have not all been wins, but its rating has held steady while Washington’s has continued to slide. Home court is Washington’s main counterweight, and Anthony Davis gives the hosts their top listed scorer at 25 points per game. Cade Cunningham leads Detroit’s starters at 22, so Washington will need Davis to deliver while limiting Detroit’s balanced scoring options.

Final Prediction

If Davis can outscore Cunningham and give Washington a clear advantage at the top of the scoring, the Wizards’ home-court boost could swing a forecast built around a narrow margin.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel