Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #79
21%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #22
79%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Why the Model Favors Andrey Rublev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.8 Andrey Rublev
Surface fit +5.1 Andrey Rublev
Overall strength +4.4 Andrey Rublev
Age +4.3 Andrey Rublev
Head-to-head +2.8 Andrey Rublev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 79% for Andrey Rublev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #79 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #46 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #46 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #69 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-10-20

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #22 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #12 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #15 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 52.1
ELO Rating: 1652.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1630.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 147.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.5
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 22.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.3

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 1734.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1815.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.1
Clay: 37.2
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Andrey Rublev
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adrian Mannarino
vs
1
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Rublev is strongly favoured, with a 79% win probability to Mannarino’s 21%. The forecast is for 24.2 total games.

Match Analysis

Rublev’s ranking at 22, compared with Mannarino at 79, and his stronger overall level underpin the forecast. He also has a slight hard-court advantage, although their serve levels are close. Mannarino’s latest win over Aleksandar Vukic gives him a positive start in Almaty, but it took 147 minutes. Rublev has yet to accumulate any court time at this event, while Mannarino’s stronger return profile gives him a way to challenge the favourite.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Adrian Mannarino - Andrey Rublev) -3.0 Most likely spread: -3 (Andrey Rublev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Rublev is projected for 10.1 aces against Mannarino’s 4.9, despite their nearly identical serve levels, so the difference is in expected match output rather than a broad serving-quality gap. Mannarino is projected for 1.9 double faults and Rublev for 2.5.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.5 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Adrian Mannarino 4.9 + Andrey Rublev 10.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Adrian Mannarino 1.9 + Andrey Rublev 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 4.9 aces

Andrey Rublev

Expected 10.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 1.9 double faults

Andrey Rublev

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Adrian Mannarino's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (48.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mannarino’s return is his best chance to make this closer: if he can consistently pressure Rublev’s serve, he may offset the gap in overall level. Rublev’s lack of Almaty court time is a counterpoint to Mannarino’s long previous match, but the forecast still rests on Rublev’s wider advantage.

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