Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Davidovich Fokina comes mainly from his recent results at comparable levels and a stronger surface fit, with overall strength also nudging the prediction his way. Davidovich Fokina carries a higher Elo (1682.7) and a top-25 ranking (22), suggesting the class advantage that the “overall strength” factor captures. His surface strength index (27.44) is better suited to this grass event than Walton’s (8.31), which helps explain the +5.0 points for surface fit. Recent record by level favored Davidovich Fokina (+5.7 points), reflecting wins at similar tournament stages that the model rewards. Walton remains a live opponent thanks to recent form and his serving/returning profile. He is ranked 91 with an Elo of 1650.9 and a higher form index (52.46 vs 36.93), which accounts for the model moving some probability (3.5 points) toward Walton. Walton also shows strong serve and return indices (mean serve 96.54, mean return 92.99) that underpin the +3.2 points for serve & return game, while Davidovich Fokina’s serve and return indices sit at 95.89 and 88.43 respectively. Walton arrives with 242 minutes already on court this week — notable fatigue compared to Davidovich Fokina, who has no accumulated minutes in this tournament. Over their last three matches Walton is unbeaten in Mallorca (straight-set wins over Kyrgios, Ghibaudo and Bondioli); Davidovich Fokina has two straight-set wins followed by a loss to Tommy Paul in London.