Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #23
58%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #30
42%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #23 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #15 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-05-19

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #30 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #34 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #35 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #41 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #76 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 36.3
ELO Rating: 1702.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1735.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.7
Clay: 26.2
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 91.9

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 27.5
ELO Rating: 1619.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1663.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.8
Clay: 17.7
Grass: 20.1
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Corentin Moutet
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Hamburg on clay in the round of 32 of this ATP 500 event, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is narrowly favoured over Corentin Moutet. The model gives Davidovich Fokina a 57.91% chance to win against Moutet’s 42.09%, with a projected total of about 23.8 games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets outcome with competitive scorelines.

Match Analysis

Davidovich Fokina arrives ranked 23 with an Elo of 1702.2, a strong form index (36.27) and standout mean serve (95.56) and return (91.93) indices. His surface strength index (26.22) is noticeably higher than Moutet’s, and he comes into Hamburg with no accumulated tournament fatigue. Over his last three clay matches he split results: a solid win against Cristian Garin in Rome was sandwiched between losses to Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev, showing he can trouble top opponents but remains inconsistent against elite clay-court players. Moutet, ranked 30 with an Elo of 1619.1 and a form index of 27.53, brings a tidy mean serve index (94.47) and a competent return index (87.54), but a lower surface strength index (17.71). He also has zero minutes of tournament fatigue recorded. Recent results on clay have been tough: three straight defeats in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome, including a long 182-minute match in Rome that ended in a narrow loss. Those longer, draining contests hint at rhythm issues that could be decisive in shorter, tactical clay battles.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Corentin Moutet) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This is an aces prediction that leans low: the match’s predicted aces total is 4.83, consistent with clay reducing serve winners. Predicted aces remain modest because both players’ serve indices are high but not dramatically different, so no single big-server surge is expected. The double faults prediction (expected double faults 3.83) reflects clay’s grind — slower points and physical demand can elevate unforced serving errors late in rallies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 4.8 Most likely: 4 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s combination of higher Elo, better recent results against top opponents and superior surface index gives him the edge in Hamburg. Watch the early service holds and break-point conversion: whichever player commands return games early is likely to decide this compact, tactical encounter.

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