Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Daniel Altmaier vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #53
29%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #14
71%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Ranking Trends

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #53 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #46 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #56 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #66 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #76 2025-02-24

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #14 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #14 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #18 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #29 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #48 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 11.3
ELO Rating: 940.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1544.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.3
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 9.3
Serve Rating: 74.6
Return Rating: 59.1

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 2167.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1588.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.0
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 22.5
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard courts at a 500-level event. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the projected winner, with a 70.52% probability to prevail over Daniel Altmaier (29.48%). The model expects a relatively short contest of about 23.23 total games.

Match Analysis

Davidovich Fokina arrives markedly ahead on ranking (14 vs 53) and Elo (2167.47 vs 940.73), and his form index (61.85) is substantially higher than Altmaier’s (11.33). Both players show no cumulative fatigue from this tournament, but Davidovich’s surface strength and consistency indicators are stronger: his surface strength index (13.97) exceeds Altmaier’s (6.28). The mean serve index gap is large—Davidovich 97.15 vs Altmaier 74.58—meaning his serve is a clear weapon here. There is also a sizable gap in return quality (Davidovich 90.06 vs Altmaier 59.06), which suggests he will be more successful in breaking or pressuring serve games. Looking at recent match performances, Altmaier has struggled in his last three recorded matches (no wins in the provided results), including losses on clay and a long hard-court match at the Australian Open. Davidovich’s recent record from the supplied data shows two wins on hard in Dallas before a tight loss to Denis Shapovalov; that sequence supports the higher form index and confidence on hard courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Altmaier - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) -0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction and predicted aces total for this match sits at about 12.97, with an expected double faults figure near 5.16. On a medium-paced hard court, that ace total is consistent with a balance between servers and returners; hard courts typically produce more aces than clay but fewer than grass. Given Davidovich’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the aces, while Altmaier’s lower serve index may push the expected double faults slightly higher for him.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s superior ranking, Elo and pronounced serve/return advantages underpin the projection. The key factor to watch is whether Altmaier can hold his serve early—Davidovich’s return pressure and big serve are the decisive matchup elements.

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