Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Daniel Altmaier vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #53
29%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #14
71%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Ranking Trends

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current Rank: #53 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #46 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #56 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #66 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #76 (2025-02-24)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current Rank: #14 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #14 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #18 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #29 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #48 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 11.3
ELO Rating: 940.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1544.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.3
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 9.3
Serve Rating: 74.6
Return Rating: 59.1

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 2167.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1588.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.0
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 22.5
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dusan Lajovic (0-2) clay Rio 121 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (1-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-2) hard Adelaide 64 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Brisbane 82 min

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (1-2) hard Dallas 117 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Dallas 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (2-0) hard Dallas 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard courts at a 500-level event. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the projected winner, with a 70.52% probability to prevail over Daniel Altmaier (29.48%). The model expects a relatively short contest of about 23.23 total games.

Match Analysis

Davidovich Fokina arrives markedly ahead on ranking (14 vs 53) and Elo (2167.47 vs 940.73), and his form index (61.85) is substantially higher than Altmaier’s (11.33). Both players show no cumulative fatigue from this tournament, but Davidovich’s surface strength and consistency indicators are stronger: his surface strength index (13.97) exceeds Altmaier’s (6.28). The mean serve index gap is large—Davidovich 97.15 vs Altmaier 74.58—meaning his serve is a clear weapon here. There is also a sizable gap in return quality (Davidovich 90.06 vs Altmaier 59.06), which suggests he will be more successful in breaking or pressuring serve games. Looking at recent match performances, Altmaier has struggled in his last three recorded matches (no wins in the provided results), including losses on clay and a long hard-court match at the Australian Open. Davidovich’s recent record from the supplied data shows two wins on hard in Dallas before a tight loss to Denis Shapovalov; that sequence supports the higher form index and confidence on hard courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction and predicted aces total for this match sits at about 12.97, with an expected double faults figure near 5.16. On a medium-paced hard court, that ace total is consistent with a balance between servers and returners; hard courts typically produce more aces than clay but fewer than grass. Given Davidovich’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the aces, while Altmaier’s lower serve index may push the expected double faults slightly higher for him.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s superior ranking, Elo and pronounced serve/return advantages underpin the projection. The key factor to watch is whether Altmaier can hold his serve early—Davidovich’s return pressure and big serve are the decisive matchup elements.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel